* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922020 10/04/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 34 37 44 56 68 76 83 89 90 84 86 85 85 87 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 34 37 44 56 68 76 83 89 90 84 86 85 85 87 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 32 33 36 41 46 52 61 71 75 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 21 24 17 11 9 9 6 9 2 1 7 16 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 1 0 -1 -3 0 -2 -2 1 -4 3 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 44 57 60 65 32 84 103 126 46 89 260 235 230 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.8 29.9 30.0 30.1 30.2 30.2 30.4 30.7 30.3 29.8 28.6 27.7 27.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 166 168 169 171 171 171 171 171 171 165 145 133 131 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 160 162 163 163 165 164 168 171 161 150 130 118 116 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.9 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 -52.6 -52.7 -52.2 -52.6 -52.1 -52.4 -52.3 -52.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.7 0.5 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 7 8 7 7 6 7 5 5 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 69 68 68 68 69 71 71 72 71 71 69 69 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 7 8 9 11 11 11 10 11 12 14 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 54 52 49 43 38 75 69 70 60 55 43 52 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 38 85 74 66 43 31 33 70 46 64 58 63 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -4 -4 -2 -2 -2 -1 -2 -3 9 5 7 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 202 139 89 57 61 218 255 93 68 226 378 307 177 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 75.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 8 9 9 10 10 9 9 9 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 107 94 125 137 138 152 111 110 91 43 33 21 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 645 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 24.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 7. 14. 20. 24. 28. 31. 34. 38. 39. 41. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 7. 8. 9. 8. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -6. -6. -7. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -2. 3. 7. 9. 10. 9. 7. 7. 4. 2. 1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 14. 26. 38. 46. 53. 59. 60. 54. 56. 55. 55. 57. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 16.2 75.3 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922020 INVEST 10/04/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 5.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.49 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 120.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.79 2.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.41 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.52 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 76.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.86 1.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.6 27.5 to 139.6 0.94 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.42 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 27% is 5.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 59% is 11.4 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.0% 22.1% 14.9% 10.5% 10.0% 12.2% 26.9% 59.2% Logistic: 2.1% 5.6% 2.3% 0.6% 0.3% 2.1% 5.0% 18.9% Bayesian: 0.3% 7.1% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1% 1.8% 9.2% 3.9% Consensus: 3.1% 11.6% 6.2% 3.8% 3.4% 5.4% 13.7% 27.3% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922020 INVEST 10/04/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922020 INVEST 10/04/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 32 34 37 44 56 68 76 83 89 90 84 86 85 85 87 18HR AGO 30 29 30 32 35 42 54 66 74 81 87 88 82 84 83 83 85 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 31 38 50 62 70 77 83 84 78 80 79 79 81 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 30 42 54 62 69 75 76 70 72 71 71 73 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT