* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922020 10/04/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 34 37 40 50 62 77 85 94 98 101 100 95 82 71 61 V (KT) LAND 30 31 34 37 40 50 62 77 85 94 98 101 100 95 65 40 31 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 34 36 41 48 57 68 82 93 93 84 73 57 35 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 13 16 16 12 6 5 4 8 3 5 6 12 19 27 40 49 48 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -1 0 0 -1 -3 -2 -2 -1 -2 -5 -2 0 -3 0 -4 0 SHEAR DIR 25 49 56 69 85 12 123 65 58 64 245 250 252 246 260 258 270 SST (C) 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.9 30.0 30.1 30.2 30.4 30.7 30.2 29.5 28.0 27.5 26.6 24.1 24.7 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 164 165 165 167 169 171 171 172 172 172 160 136 129 119 98 103 108 ADJ. POT. INT. 159 160 159 160 161 163 165 171 172 162 145 121 113 104 87 90 94 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.1 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 -52.9 -52.7 -52.4 -52.5 -52.2 -52.4 -52.4 -52.7 -52.7 -52.8 -52.8 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 7 8 7 8 6 8 6 7 3 5 2 4 1 700-500 MB RH 70 69 68 68 69 70 75 74 75 71 70 66 65 66 61 62 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 7 7 8 10 10 11 10 12 13 14 16 15 12 10 7 850 MB ENV VOR 56 59 57 46 51 60 73 68 62 44 29 42 46 21 -44 -62 -93 200 MB DIV 20 49 74 74 79 51 35 38 65 28 41 61 58 40 25 9 29 700-850 TADV 2 -1 -7 -6 0 -2 0 -1 1 0 7 4 15 12 23 27 39 LAND (KM) 283 246 179 148 120 146 286 333 112 98 288 403 228 69 -8 -168 -390 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 15.8 16.2 16.4 16.7 17.3 18.0 19.2 20.8 22.4 24.1 25.5 27.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 74.3 75.2 76.0 76.9 77.7 79.3 81.0 82.6 84.1 85.5 86.9 88.3 89.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 8 8 9 11 10 11 10 10 8 9 9 11 13 HEAT CONTENT 109 118 96 100 131 132 122 103 119 81 37 24 19 4 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 588 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 28.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 7. 14. 20. 24. 28. 31. 35. 37. 37. 37. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. 9. 6. 1. -5. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 2. 4. 4. 5. 7. 5. 0. -3. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -1. 3. 6. 9. 11. 10. 8. 6. 2. 1. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 5. 3. 1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 10. 20. 32. 47. 55. 64. 68. 71. 70. 65. 52. 41. 31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.5 74.3 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922020 INVEST 10/04/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.62 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 110.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.73 2.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.18 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.59 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 76.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.86 1.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.7 27.5 to 139.6 0.91 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.41 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 34% is 7.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 66% is 12.6 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.5% 20.4% 14.1% 9.6% 9.2% 12.0% 34.1% 65.6% Logistic: 6.1% 20.9% 10.6% 2.9% 1.8% 6.4% 13.9% 36.1% Bayesian: 0.9% 15.5% 4.5% 0.3% 0.4% 5.2% 10.8% 49.0% Consensus: 4.5% 19.0% 9.7% 4.3% 3.8% 7.9% 19.6% 50.3% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922020 INVEST 10/04/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922020 INVEST 10/04/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 34 37 40 50 62 77 85 94 98 101 100 95 65 40 31 18HR AGO 30 29 32 35 38 48 60 75 83 92 96 99 98 93 63 38 29 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 32 42 54 69 77 86 90 93 92 87 57 32 23 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 33 45 60 68 77 81 84 83 78 48 23 DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT