* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922020 10/04/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 38 41 49 63 73 79 85 91 93 94 93 86 76 67 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 38 41 49 63 73 79 85 91 93 94 93 86 66 40 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 36 37 41 47 55 65 76 89 97 98 86 74 54 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 17 19 21 21 18 3 9 5 11 9 3 7 11 15 31 41 51 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 0 0 0 0 -5 -3 -3 -3 -1 -4 0 -1 -3 -1 -3 SHEAR DIR 32 40 57 74 91 92 99 100 96 61 83 294 264 259 256 262 261 SST (C) 29.7 29.8 30.0 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.4 30.4 30.0 29.8 28.4 27.4 26.4 24.6 25.0 POT. INT. (KT) 165 167 170 171 171 170 170 170 170 171 170 166 142 128 118 102 106 ADJ. POT. INT. 165 165 165 165 164 162 160 160 166 166 157 152 127 113 103 90 92 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.8 -52.9 -52.8 -52.8 -53.1 -52.6 -52.8 -52.3 -52.5 -52.1 -52.6 -52.4 -52.8 -52.6 -52.9 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 8 8 7 8 6 7 5 7 6 6 3 4 2 3 700-500 MB RH 66 66 65 65 66 70 74 75 76 74 73 70 70 68 68 66 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 6 6 7 7 8 11 10 11 11 12 13 14 14 14 12 9 850 MB ENV VOR 54 60 52 57 64 86 94 77 88 75 55 44 55 44 12 -43 -58 200 MB DIV 10 12 23 75 81 49 41 46 55 41 57 22 54 43 44 31 19 700-850 TADV -2 0 -4 -11 -7 0 -1 0 1 -1 5 5 9 7 22 18 38 LAND (KM) 237 172 112 85 123 235 302 247 331 191 94 219 401 238 45 -26 -210 LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.4 16.8 17.0 17.0 17.1 17.3 17.7 18.8 20.1 21.8 23.5 25.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 74.2 75.5 76.6 77.6 78.5 80.2 81.7 83.0 84.2 85.1 86.1 87.2 88.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 10 9 9 8 7 7 8 9 10 10 10 9 10 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 101 101 101 136 131 129 93 74 112 144 65 42 33 18 3 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 690 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 37.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. 1. 7. 14. 20. 24. 28. 31. 35. 39. 39. 39. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. 1. -3. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 8. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 4. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 4. 3. -0. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -1. 2. 5. 9. 12. 12. 10. 7. 3. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 8. 11. 10. 7. 4. 1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 19. 33. 43. 49. 55. 61. 63. 64. 63. 56. 46. 37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.9 74.2 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922020 INVEST 10/04/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.39 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 114.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.75 2.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.55 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.35 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 87.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.85 1.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.8 27.5 to 139.6 0.96 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.32 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 52% is 10.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.3% 23.8% 15.1% 11.2% 10.3% 12.4% 18.7% 52.0% Logistic: 3.5% 8.8% 4.7% 1.9% 0.9% 2.5% 4.7% 17.3% Bayesian: 0.3% 10.2% 1.8% 0.2% 0.2% 0.8% 1.1% 4.8% Consensus: 4.0% 14.3% 7.2% 4.5% 3.8% 5.2% 8.2% 24.7% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922020 INVEST 10/04/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922020 INVEST 10/04/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 35 38 41 49 63 73 79 85 91 93 94 93 86 66 40 18HR AGO 30 29 32 35 38 46 60 70 76 82 88 90 91 90 83 63 37 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 32 40 54 64 70 76 82 84 85 84 77 57 31 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 31 45 55 61 67 73 75 76 75 68 48 22 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT