* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922020 10/03/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 42 46 56 68 79 89 94 97 99 100 96 89 76 68 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 42 46 56 68 79 89 94 97 99 100 96 89 58 37 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 35 38 42 49 59 71 87 102 113 110 95 81 68 46 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 7 7 11 13 9 5 4 4 2 2 11 12 22 32 43 47 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -2 -1 0 -1 -1 -1 -3 0 0 -5 -1 -2 -4 0 -4 SHEAR DIR 351 344 2 52 59 63 52 102 39 37 291 261 237 240 244 254 262 SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.8 30.0 30.2 30.2 30.4 30.7 30.0 28.7 27.6 27.5 25.9 24.1 25.0 POT. INT. (KT) 167 166 164 163 165 169 171 172 172 172 170 147 131 129 112 99 106 ADJ. POT. INT. 167 164 159 158 159 162 166 167 172 172 157 131 115 112 97 87 94 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.1 -53.0 -53.0 -52.8 -52.8 -52.8 -52.7 -52.4 -52.4 -52.2 -52.2 -52.3 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 8 8 8 7 7 7 8 7 7 5 5 2 4 2 4 700-500 MB RH 69 69 69 70 69 70 71 73 73 74 72 72 68 67 68 66 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 7 8 8 10 10 11 11 10 12 13 12 11 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 48 54 51 55 72 50 61 65 66 53 34 30 46 22 16 -61 -62 200 MB DIV 12 16 21 29 80 49 59 23 25 79 18 27 56 63 49 45 19 700-850 TADV 1 3 7 1 -2 0 -2 -2 -3 5 0 12 8 15 11 33 21 LAND (KM) 203 297 312 277 199 100 85 245 269 22 201 358 327 191 23 -44 -209 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.8 15.2 15.7 16.1 16.8 17.6 18.5 19.8 21.6 23.3 24.8 26.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 72.0 73.1 74.0 74.8 75.6 77.2 78.8 80.6 82.6 84.4 86.0 87.6 89.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 9 9 9 8 9 11 12 11 11 9 9 7 8 11 14 HEAT CONTENT 80 97 103 118 105 122 136 141 108 114 54 33 19 17 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 616 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 40.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 7. 14. 20. 24. 28. 31. 35. 38. 39. 38. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 12. 13. 13. 12. 10. 6. 1. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 8. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -0. 1. 1. -1. -2. -7. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -1. 3. 6. 10. 12. 12. 10. 7. 3. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 9. 12. 11. 8. 4. 1. -2. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 16. 26. 38. 49. 59. 64. 67. 69. 70. 66. 59. 46. 38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.3 72.0 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922020 INVEST 10/03/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 10.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.73 4.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 100.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.66 3.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.78 5.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.25 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 72.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.87 3.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.4 27.5 to 139.6 0.93 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.28 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 44% is 4.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 34% is 7.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 59% is 11.4 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.3% 44.4% 30.2% 15.4% 12.8% 18.5% 34.0% 59.3% Logistic: 6.1% 25.9% 15.3% 7.6% 4.4% 15.0% 18.8% 45.9% Bayesian: 1.2% 47.2% 16.6% 2.5% 0.5% 17.1% 31.3% 43.6% Consensus: 6.9% 39.1% 20.7% 8.5% 5.9% 16.9% 28.1% 49.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922020 INVEST 10/03/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922020 INVEST 10/03/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 37 42 46 56 68 79 89 94 97 99 100 96 89 58 37 18HR AGO 30 29 33 38 42 52 64 75 85 90 93 95 96 92 85 54 33 12HR AGO 30 27 26 31 35 45 57 68 78 83 86 88 89 85 78 47 26 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 24 34 46 57 67 72 75 77 78 74 67 36 15 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT