* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922020 10/03/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 35 41 50 61 71 77 83 88 93 95 96 91 86 79 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 35 41 50 61 71 77 83 78 92 94 94 90 85 78 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 29 31 37 44 53 64 77 89 97 99 95 84 73 61 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 10 7 7 5 5 4 5 3 3 2 4 8 13 18 28 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 -3 0 0 -5 -2 0 0 -2 -1 -6 0 -4 -1 1 SHEAR DIR 327 336 325 332 23 46 270 127 168 144 94 162 247 253 256 253 255 SST (C) 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.8 30.1 30.2 30.3 30.4 30.6 30.2 29.8 29.0 28.0 27.5 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 162 164 165 165 164 165 171 172 172 172 171 170 164 149 135 129 121 ADJ. POT. INT. 159 161 162 162 159 158 164 167 170 170 168 153 143 130 118 112 105 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.5 -53.2 -53.1 -53.1 -52.9 -53.0 -52.8 -52.9 -52.5 -52.8 -52.4 -52.9 -52.6 -53.0 -53.2 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 0.1 -0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 10 8 8 7 8 7 8 7 8 7 7 5 6 3 5 2 700-500 MB RH 72 71 72 73 72 70 71 71 71 71 69 68 69 69 69 73 77 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 4 5 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 8 8 6 850 MB ENV VOR 35 45 50 54 52 64 55 56 36 42 27 21 30 54 47 20 -25 200 MB DIV 15 6 13 30 48 57 49 38 33 49 40 40 25 27 9 32 33 700-850 TADV 1 2 1 5 3 -2 0 -5 1 0 2 3 0 2 2 9 7 LAND (KM) 144 148 207 287 289 204 70 11 262 186 -5 136 256 355 412 256 117 LAT (DEG N) 13.4 13.8 14.3 14.8 15.4 16.3 17.2 18.2 19.3 20.6 21.9 23.2 24.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 70.6 71.4 72.2 72.9 73.7 75.1 76.7 78.4 80.5 82.6 84.2 85.3 86.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 8 9 10 12 11 9 6 5 5 7 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 54 69 82 95 98 106 108 129 132 106 116 93 46 32 23 19 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 567 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 41.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 7. 15. 21. 25. 29. 33. 38. 42. 44. 45. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 15. 15. 15. 14. 12. 10. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. 2. 5. 8. 11. 13. 11. 9. 5. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 9. 12. 11. 8. 4. 1. -2. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 16. 25. 36. 46. 52. 58. 63. 68. 70. 71. 66. 61. 54. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.4 70.6 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922020 INVEST 10/03/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 10.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.78 5.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 79.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.52 3.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.90 6.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.72 3.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 55.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.88 4.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.4 27.5 to 139.6 0.96 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.24 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 51% is 4.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 36% is 7.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.6% 51.4% 35.4% 15.2% 0.0% 0.0% 35.9% 0.0% Logistic: 30.5% 61.7% 47.1% 21.5% 17.9% 37.2% 56.9% 70.6% Bayesian: 2.6% 52.8% 23.1% 4.1% 3.2% 18.8% 18.8% 69.8% Consensus: 14.9% 55.3% 35.2% 13.6% 7.0% 18.7% 37.2% 46.8% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922020 INVEST 10/03/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922020 INVEST 10/03/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 28 31 35 41 50 61 71 77 83 78 92 94 94 90 85 78 18HR AGO 25 24 27 31 37 46 57 67 73 79 74 88 90 90 86 81 74 12HR AGO 25 22 21 25 31 40 51 61 67 73 68 82 84 84 80 75 68 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 21 30 41 51 57 63 58 72 74 74 70 65 58 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT