* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922020 09/07/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 35 38 43 49 53 54 52 50 49 48 49 50 52 55 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 35 38 43 49 53 54 52 50 49 48 49 50 52 55 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 31 33 35 39 42 43 42 40 39 38 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 8 5 4 6 11 13 14 15 18 18 22 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 -4 -2 0 0 2 2 1 4 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 212 222 214 182 220 254 224 225 221 219 222 233 207 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.3 27.3 27.4 27.4 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.8 28.0 28.3 28.7 28.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 126 125 126 125 127 128 129 130 134 136 140 146 145 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 115 113 114 112 114 117 119 121 125 126 128 132 130 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.4 -53.5 -53.2 -53.3 -53.5 -53.1 -53.3 -53.5 -53.9 -53.7 -53.8 -53.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 59 60 62 63 61 62 59 56 53 55 59 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 15 16 17 18 19 19 17 14 12 11 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 92 82 90 95 102 97 117 105 93 94 87 84 83 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 20 21 18 26 26 32 37 17 8 14 26 25 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -2 -1 0 0 4 5 7 2 0 0 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1809 1782 1756 1747 1738 1719 1696 1664 1614 1491 1399 1292 1169 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 41.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 3 3 3 5 8 9 10 9 8 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 5 6 6 6 7 8 10 12 14 21 32 47 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 620 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 16. 20. 23. 25. 27. 28. 28. 28. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 7. 6. 4. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. -11. -11. -11. -11. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 0. -5. -8. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 13. 19. 23. 24. 22. 20. 19. 18. 19. 20. 22. 25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 17.0 41.3 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922020 INVEST 09/07/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.88 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.04 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.51 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.39 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 137.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.80 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.6 27.5 to 139.6 0.50 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.24 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 5.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.94 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.4% 15.9% 12.0% 9.5% 8.1% 10.6% 10.9% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 6.9% 3.5% 0.8% 0.2% 2.2% 3.9% 5.7% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 2.1% 7.9% 5.2% 3.4% 2.8% 4.3% 5.0% 1.9% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922020 INVEST 09/07/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922020 INVEST 09/07/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 33 35 38 43 49 53 54 52 50 49 48 49 50 52 55 18HR AGO 30 29 31 33 36 41 47 51 52 50 48 47 46 47 48 50 53 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 31 36 42 46 47 45 43 42 41 42 43 45 48 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 28 34 38 39 37 35 34 33 34 35 37 40 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT