* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922020 09/06/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 35 38 44 52 57 60 57 56 53 53 54 56 59 61 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 35 38 44 52 57 60 57 56 53 53 54 56 59 61 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 33 35 40 45 48 47 45 42 41 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 1 5 2 3 2 5 9 13 16 19 20 24 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 0 -2 -1 1 1 1 2 6 1 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 18 222 222 207 162 221 222 234 218 214 227 237 222 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.4 27.4 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.6 27.5 27.6 27.9 28.2 28.6 28.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 129 127 127 127 126 127 130 130 132 136 140 145 146 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 124 116 116 114 114 115 120 121 124 128 132 133 132 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.1 -53.3 -53.5 -53.1 -53.3 -52.8 -53.1 -53.1 -53.5 -53.6 -53.7 -53.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 7 6 7 7 8 8 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 63 61 62 64 64 63 60 58 55 55 56 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 15 16 17 19 20 20 20 17 15 14 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 92 93 85 95 90 91 103 114 105 102 96 92 96 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 36 28 20 18 25 19 34 24 10 -2 17 23 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 -1 0 0 4 3 8 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1830 1783 1737 1721 1706 1713 1710 1679 1647 1582 1437 1248 1097 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 40.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 5 4 3 3 4 7 9 11 12 12 9 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 11 11 16 30 46 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 18 CX,CY: -16/ -4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 823 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 16. 20. 23. 25. 27. 28. 29. 29. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 11. 10. 9. 7. 4. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 3. 3. -1. -5. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 8. 14. 22. 27. 30. 27. 26. 23. 23. 24. 26. 29. 31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 16.7 40.6 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922020 INVEST 09/06/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.99 3.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.04 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.49 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.53 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 125.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.81 1.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.8 27.5 to 139.6 0.53 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.26 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.9% 17.8% 13.3% 10.2% 8.9% 11.7% 12.9% 0.0% Logistic: 2.1% 11.0% 6.7% 1.4% 0.3% 3.2% 4.7% 10.0% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.6% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.6% Consensus: 2.5% 9.8% 6.8% 3.9% 3.1% 5.0% 5.9% 3.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922020 INVEST 09/06/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922020 INVEST 09/06/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 32 35 38 44 52 57 60 57 56 53 53 54 56 59 61 18HR AGO 30 29 30 33 36 42 50 55 58 55 54 51 51 52 54 57 59 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 32 38 46 51 54 51 50 47 47 48 50 53 55 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 29 37 42 45 42 41 38 38 39 41 44 46 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT