* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922020 09/06/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 35 36 40 46 55 61 65 66 64 61 60 60 62 63 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 35 36 40 46 55 61 65 66 64 61 60 60 62 63 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 34 35 37 40 44 48 51 54 55 54 53 52 53 56 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 11 10 9 9 5 3 3 1 8 16 18 22 19 17 16 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 0 1 4 2 6 0 0 -1 -2 -2 -2 -3 -1 -5 0 SHEAR DIR 244 252 240 230 256 249 224 121 215 137 200 213 219 205 212 190 214 SST (C) 27.0 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.3 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.5 27.7 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.2 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 128 129 127 127 127 127 126 123 125 127 129 132 133 135 136 139 145 ADJ. POT. INT. 128 124 120 119 118 116 114 110 113 117 119 121 122 123 123 124 124 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.1 -52.9 -53.0 -53.3 -53.1 -53.3 -52.9 -53.0 -52.7 -53.1 -53.1 -53.1 -52.8 -52.8 -52.3 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 7 7 8 7 7 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 60 57 57 55 55 56 61 64 68 66 66 68 71 70 68 69 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 13 14 14 16 18 19 20 19 18 16 14 13 11 10 9 850 MB ENV VOR 93 98 95 93 89 97 106 100 108 101 116 123 117 149 162 161 128 200 MB DIV 52 45 26 21 26 8 13 17 23 24 2 24 23 54 34 80 41 700-850 TADV -1 -3 -5 -5 -5 0 0 0 0 1 6 5 5 3 3 -1 0 LAND (KM) 2179 2067 1963 1855 1752 1609 1524 1498 1531 1578 1638 1691 1723 1694 1642 1626 1667 LAT (DEG N) 18.7 18.9 18.8 18.4 17.9 17.0 16.2 15.9 16.2 17.0 18.1 19.2 20.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 38.0 39.9 41.3 42.4 43.3 44.3 44.5 44.5 44.4 44.8 45.6 46.8 48.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 21 16 12 10 9 5 3 0 3 6 7 8 9 9 9 9 5 HEAT CONTENT 12 7 7 7 7 9 9 8 8 11 13 13 13 18 31 28 30 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 23 CX,CY: -22/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 924 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 16. 20. 22. 24. 25. 26. 27. 27. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 12. 10. 8. 6. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 3. 1. -3. -6. -7. -10. -11. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -4. -3. -3. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 6. 10. 16. 25. 31. 35. 36. 34. 31. 30. 30. 32. 33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 18.7 38.0 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922020 INVEST 09/06/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.71 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.05 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.52 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.45 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 176.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.76 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.9 27.5 to 139.6 0.57 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.30 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 5.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.94 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.1% 16.9% 12.3% 9.4% 7.8% 10.9% 12.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.8% 8.4% 7.3% 2.4% 0.3% 2.0% 1.0% 2.4% Bayesian: 0.7% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.7% Consensus: 2.9% 8.5% 6.6% 3.9% 2.7% 4.3% 4.4% 1.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922020 INVEST 09/06/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922020 INVEST 09/06/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 33 35 36 40 46 55 61 65 66 64 61 60 60 62 63 18HR AGO 30 29 31 33 34 38 44 53 59 63 64 62 59 58 58 60 61 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 29 33 39 48 54 58 59 57 54 53 53 55 56 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 25 31 40 46 50 51 49 46 45 45 47 48 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT