* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922020 09/06/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 27 29 31 36 43 52 57 60 61 60 58 56 57 58 59 V (KT) LAND 25 25 27 29 31 36 43 52 57 60 61 60 58 56 57 58 59 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 26 27 29 31 34 36 38 39 41 41 42 42 44 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 13 12 11 12 10 5 3 5 7 14 19 21 21 19 18 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -4 -1 1 0 2 5 1 1 -1 -5 -4 -2 0 -2 1 SHEAR DIR 247 242 247 252 245 263 223 213 189 204 197 217 223 224 192 193 174 SST (C) 26.9 27.0 27.0 27.1 27.1 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.4 27.5 27.7 27.8 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 127 127 126 126 126 126 125 123 123 127 129 132 133 134 134 135 136 ADJ. POT. INT. 126 124 120 118 118 116 114 110 110 116 119 121 121 122 120 121 121 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.0 -53.2 -52.9 -53.0 -53.4 -53.2 -53.2 -52.9 -53.1 -52.9 -53.3 -53.1 -53.3 -52.8 -52.5 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 63 59 56 55 56 55 58 59 62 62 62 58 63 66 65 61 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 13 14 15 17 18 21 21 20 18 16 15 13 12 11 9 850 MB ENV VOR 73 90 95 94 99 89 106 105 113 103 100 118 128 143 180 177 148 200 MB DIV 53 65 62 32 18 9 14 26 7 -21 -12 -2 24 31 58 54 26 700-850 TADV 1 0 -2 -6 -9 -3 0 3 2 0 4 5 2 3 2 0 -2 LAND (KM) 1938 2138 2164 2067 1958 1750 1640 1574 1583 1602 1635 1660 1680 1646 1663 1643 1715 LAT (DEG N) 18.8 19.2 19.4 19.3 18.9 17.8 17.0 16.4 16.5 17.0 17.9 18.8 19.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 35.4 37.4 39.1 40.4 41.5 43.2 43.8 44.0 44.0 44.4 45.3 46.6 47.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 20 18 14 12 11 7 4 1 1 5 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 7 12 9 7 7 7 7 7 7 9 12 14 13 14 20 30 25 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 21 CX,CY: -19/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 818 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 14. 18. 22. 25. 27. 29. 30. 30. 31. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 9. 7. 5. 3. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 7. 7. 6. 2. -1. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 4. 6. 11. 18. 27. 32. 35. 36. 35. 33. 31. 32. 33. 34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 18.8 35.4 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922020 INVEST 09/06/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.66 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.06 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.72 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.40 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 151.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.78 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.2 27.5 to 139.6 0.61 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.35 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.7% 16.3% 11.9% 9.2% 0.0% 0.0% 10.1% 0.0% Logistic: 1.6% 4.0% 4.2% 1.2% 0.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 6.8% 5.4% 3.5% 0.0% 0.2% 3.4% 0.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922020 INVEST 09/06/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922020 INVEST 09/06/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 27 29 31 36 43 52 57 60 61 60 58 56 57 58 59 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 30 35 42 51 56 59 60 59 57 55 56 57 58 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 30 37 46 51 54 55 54 52 50 51 52 53 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 22 29 38 43 46 47 46 44 42 43 44 45 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT