* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922020 09/05/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 35 39 47 55 61 64 65 63 64 62 62 63 62 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 35 39 47 55 61 64 65 63 64 62 62 63 62 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 29 31 33 36 39 40 41 41 42 42 42 43 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 11 14 14 12 11 8 9 5 11 13 16 13 20 15 20 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 -1 -3 0 1 -1 1 6 0 0 0 -2 0 -1 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 228 254 249 252 259 247 240 232 199 214 213 223 236 242 235 238 250 SST (C) 26.5 26.9 27.0 27.0 27.1 27.2 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.4 27.6 27.8 28.0 28.3 28.4 28.6 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 122 126 126 125 126 126 125 125 123 127 130 134 136 141 142 145 145 ADJ. POT. INT. 122 124 122 119 118 117 114 113 110 116 121 125 127 131 131 133 132 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.9 -53.2 -53.3 -53.0 -53.3 -53.1 -53.4 -52.9 -53.1 -53.1 -53.5 -53.4 -53.4 -53.3 -53.1 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 6 7 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 64 62 59 56 56 54 54 58 60 63 63 61 62 65 67 68 71 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 13 14 14 16 17 18 20 20 19 16 16 14 12 11 10 850 MB ENV VOR 53 72 85 92 92 83 89 99 100 108 94 92 104 88 99 83 76 200 MB DIV 51 54 58 52 26 11 19 27 6 -18 -12 14 28 10 36 3 35 700-850 TADV 4 0 0 -2 -9 -6 0 1 3 3 5 4 4 0 0 0 -1 LAND (KM) 1748 1946 2128 2175 2080 1873 1723 1636 1598 1578 1575 1573 1573 1451 1352 1202 1071 LAT (DEG N) 18.3 18.9 19.2 19.3 19.2 18.3 17.5 16.8 16.6 16.8 17.5 18.3 19.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 33.5 35.5 37.3 38.8 40.1 42.0 43.2 43.6 43.9 44.5 45.7 47.4 49.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 21 19 16 13 11 9 5 4 2 5 8 9 9 10 9 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 2 8 12 10 7 6 6 7 7 9 14 14 14 26 37 45 34 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 21 CX,CY: -19/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 795 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 14. 18. 22. 25. 27. 29. 31. 32. 32. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -11. -12. -12. -12. -11. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 5. 1. -1. -4. -6. -7. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 14. 22. 30. 36. 39. 40. 38. 39. 37. 37. 38. 37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 18.3 33.5 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922020 INVEST 09/05/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.67 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.05 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.64 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.45 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 152.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.78 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.9 27.5 to 139.6 0.61 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.36 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.5% 15.9% 11.7% 8.8% 0.0% 0.0% 9.8% 0.0% Logistic: 2.6% 6.6% 6.0% 1.7% 0.2% 1.1% 0.5% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 2.6% 7.8% 6.0% 3.5% 0.1% 0.4% 3.4% 0.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922020 INVEST 09/05/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 29 32 35 39 47 55 61 64 65 63 64 62 62 63 62 18HR AGO 25 24 26 29 32 36 44 52 58 61 62 60 61 59 59 60 59 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 27 31 39 47 53 56 57 55 56 54 54 55 54 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 22 30 38 44 47 48 46 47 45 45 46 45 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT