* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922020 09/05/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 29 31 33 37 41 43 43 44 46 50 53 59 65 69 V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 29 31 33 37 41 43 43 44 46 50 53 59 65 69 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 27 27 27 27 26 25 24 24 24 25 29 35 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 12 17 18 19 19 23 20 25 24 24 18 11 5 3 2 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 1 2 2 0 -2 -1 0 1 0 3 0 2 6 5 3 SHEAR DIR 302 275 269 270 274 260 253 231 231 221 220 206 214 177 78 94 53 SST (C) 26.9 26.5 26.6 27.0 27.0 27.2 27.2 27.3 27.3 27.7 27.9 28.3 28.5 28.7 28.8 28.7 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 126 121 122 126 125 126 126 126 127 132 135 141 143 145 144 143 143 ADJ. POT. INT. 126 118 117 120 119 117 115 116 117 123 127 132 133 132 129 128 130 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.6 -52.8 -53.1 -53.2 -52.9 -53.2 -53.2 -53.4 -53.1 -53.1 -52.9 -53.3 -52.9 -52.8 -52.2 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 8 8 8 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 67 65 64 62 59 57 54 56 53 55 54 56 53 55 55 56 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 44 51 73 79 87 101 90 92 96 111 118 120 104 102 97 92 79 200 MB DIV 38 61 63 71 75 35 18 19 21 16 7 17 5 1 23 27 16 700-850 TADV 1 6 -1 -2 -1 -4 -3 0 3 2 6 0 0 -1 -1 1 5 LAND (KM) 1472 1673 1839 1988 2142 2081 1926 1819 1730 1654 1537 1415 1226 1114 1037 1053 1132 LAT (DEG N) 17.5 18.2 18.6 18.9 19.0 18.9 18.6 18.5 18.5 18.6 18.4 18.2 17.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 31.0 32.8 34.4 35.9 37.4 39.7 41.6 43.1 44.6 46.3 48.4 50.3 52.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 19 17 15 14 13 10 8 7 8 9 10 9 8 5 2 3 5 HEAT CONTENT 13 2 3 9 12 7 7 7 9 14 14 20 38 52 45 43 42 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 20 CX,CY: -17/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 661 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 14. 18. 23. 26. 28. 30. 32. 33. 33. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 1. -2. -6. -10. -11. -11. -11. -9. -7. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -8. -7. -5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 12. 16. 18. 18. 19. 21. 25. 28. 34. 40. 44. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 17.5 31.0 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922020 INVEST 09/05/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.54 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.05 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.67 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.55 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 144.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.79 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.2 27.5 to 139.6 0.60 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.42 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.96 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.8% 16.0% 11.6% 8.4% 0.0% 0.0% 8.4% 0.0% Logistic: 6.2% 7.4% 5.0% 2.5% 0.5% 2.3% 0.8% 0.3% Bayesian: 2.2% 0.1% 1.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 4.4% 7.8% 5.9% 3.7% 0.2% 0.9% 3.1% 0.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922020 INVEST 09/05/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 28 29 31 33 37 41 43 43 44 46 50 53 59 65 69 18HR AGO 25 24 25 26 28 30 34 38 40 40 41 43 47 50 56 62 66 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 24 26 30 34 36 36 37 39 43 46 52 58 62 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 19 23 27 29 29 30 32 36 39 45 51 55 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT