* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922020 09/05/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 34 37 44 50 58 63 66 69 67 64 61 60 61 60 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 34 37 44 50 58 63 66 69 67 64 61 60 61 60 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 28 29 31 34 37 39 41 44 45 45 44 44 44 46 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 8 11 14 17 14 14 12 11 14 15 14 15 13 16 14 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 1 0 -1 0 -1 -2 -6 -3 1 0 3 4 0 3 -1 3 SHEAR DIR 72 290 263 253 247 235 237 240 237 237 228 231 223 221 214 206 202 SST (C) 26.8 27.0 26.5 26.3 26.3 26.7 26.5 26.6 26.6 26.4 26.3 26.5 26.6 26.8 27.2 27.3 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 125 127 121 119 118 121 118 118 118 116 116 118 119 120 124 124 127 ADJ. POT. INT. 124 126 118 114 113 113 110 108 108 106 107 109 110 109 112 111 112 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.1 -52.7 -52.9 -53.1 -52.9 -53.3 -53.0 -53.4 -53.0 -53.0 -53.0 -53.4 -53.3 -53.1 -52.9 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 7 8 7 8 8 8 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 70 67 64 63 60 56 54 56 56 57 58 56 57 57 59 61 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 12 13 14 16 16 18 19 19 20 19 17 16 14 13 13 850 MB ENV VOR 50 44 53 77 80 102 97 96 98 108 113 113 89 91 98 100 85 200 MB DIV 23 33 63 57 73 70 25 19 27 30 8 8 10 31 13 21 4 700-850 TADV -8 3 7 3 1 -1 -6 -1 0 7 7 5 0 0 -1 0 -1 LAND (KM) 1249 1453 1644 1805 1965 2185 2008 1873 1779 1691 1614 1536 1468 1355 1267 1215 1205 LAT (DEG N) 16.8 17.6 18.3 18.7 19.0 19.1 18.6 18.3 18.2 18.2 18.2 18.3 18.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 29.0 30.8 32.5 34.1 35.7 38.4 40.4 42.0 43.3 44.8 46.3 48.2 49.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 18 18 17 16 15 10 9 7 7 7 8 9 8 6 5 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 7 13 3 2 3 10 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 9 33 41 39 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 17 CX,CY: -15/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 555 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 13. 18. 21. 24. 25. 27. 27. 27. 27. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 8. 5. 1. -1. -4. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 12. 19. 25. 33. 38. 41. 44. 42. 39. 36. 35. 36. 35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 16.8 29.0 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922020 INVEST 09/05/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.72 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.04 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.74 2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.59 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 141.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.79 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.1 27.5 to 139.6 0.59 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.37 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.93 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.8% 18.1% 13.2% 9.7% 0.0% 0.0% 10.6% 0.0% Logistic: 9.5% 15.6% 12.8% 5.9% 1.2% 4.2% 1.4% 0.4% Bayesian: 2.2% 0.1% 1.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 5.8% 11.3% 9.0% 5.3% 0.4% 1.5% 4.1% 0.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922020 INVEST 09/05/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 30 34 37 44 50 58 63 66 69 67 64 61 60 61 60 18HR AGO 25 24 27 31 34 41 47 55 60 63 66 64 61 58 57 58 57 12HR AGO 25 22 21 25 28 35 41 49 54 57 60 58 55 52 51 52 51 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 25 31 39 44 47 50 48 45 42 41 42 41 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT