* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922020 09/05/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 32 38 45 52 59 61 63 62 62 61 62 65 64 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 32 38 45 52 59 61 63 62 62 61 62 65 64 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 29 32 34 35 36 37 38 37 37 39 42 47 52 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 0 10 15 19 16 20 17 15 16 13 12 6 6 9 8 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 7 2 0 -2 -2 -5 -5 -5 0 1 0 4 1 -2 -3 -5 SHEAR DIR 69 300 273 257 253 251 244 242 234 239 224 233 182 185 144 125 122 SST (C) 27.6 26.8 26.7 26.3 26.3 26.6 26.7 26.6 26.6 26.5 26.4 26.4 26.5 26.7 26.9 26.9 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 134 125 124 119 119 121 121 119 119 117 116 116 117 118 119 119 118 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 123 121 116 115 114 112 110 108 107 106 107 106 107 105 106 106 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.0 -53.1 -52.7 -52.9 -53.2 -52.9 -53.3 -53.2 -53.3 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 -53.3 -52.9 -53.0 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 5 6 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 8 9 700-500 MB RH 69 68 66 65 61 58 55 51 53 53 56 53 53 54 57 58 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 11 12 13 15 17 18 20 20 21 20 18 17 15 15 14 850 MB ENV VOR 60 42 34 51 73 71 104 95 111 113 122 122 121 109 94 84 58 200 MB DIV 19 26 40 64 62 58 38 14 32 21 -6 -13 10 13 25 23 24 700-850 TADV -8 -4 8 9 6 4 -10 -6 0 3 5 0 -1 -1 -1 0 0 LAND (KM) 1008 1176 1361 1535 1700 2035 2212 2026 1895 1764 1654 1535 1455 1389 1379 1371 1448 LAT (DEG N) 16.2 17.3 18.1 18.8 19.3 19.8 19.8 19.3 19.0 18.5 18.1 17.6 17.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 26.8 28.2 29.8 31.5 33.2 36.5 38.9 41.0 42.6 44.0 45.3 46.7 48.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 17 17 17 17 13 11 9 7 7 7 7 5 4 2 2 4 HEAT CONTENT 19 6 6 2 1 7 6 2 2 2 2 3 5 6 6 6 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 17 CX,CY: -10/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 754 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 14. 18. 22. 24. 26. 27. 27. 27. 27. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 2. 0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. -8. -7. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 7. 4. 1. -1. -2. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 13. 20. 27. 34. 36. 38. 37. 37. 36. 37. 40. 39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 16.2 26.8 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922020 INVEST 09/05/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.72 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.04 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.57 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.69 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 143.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.79 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.7 27.5 to 139.6 0.62 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.33 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.4% 17.3% 12.5% 9.0% 0.0% 0.0% 9.9% 0.0% Logistic: 8.6% 12.6% 10.2% 3.6% 0.7% 3.1% 0.8% 0.1% Bayesian: 2.2% 0.4% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 5.4% 10.1% 7.9% 4.2% 0.3% 1.1% 3.6% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922020 INVEST 09/05/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 30 32 38 45 52 59 61 63 62 62 61 62 65 64 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 30 36 43 50 57 59 61 60 60 59 60 63 62 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 31 38 45 52 54 56 55 55 54 55 58 57 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 23 30 37 44 46 48 47 47 46 47 50 49 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT