* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922020 09/04/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 26 27 29 32 33 34 33 31 31 30 30 33 38 42 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 26 27 29 32 33 34 33 31 31 30 30 33 38 42 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 27 27 26 25 23 20 18 17 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 6 8 12 18 22 28 35 35 34 34 32 26 21 12 14 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 2 5 6 3 2 1 -1 -4 -3 0 0 1 -1 -5 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 56 15 329 295 272 275 268 273 265 252 235 229 220 205 163 125 105 SST (C) 27.2 27.4 26.9 26.7 26.4 26.2 26.6 26.7 26.6 26.6 26.5 26.3 26.5 27.4 28.1 28.2 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 128 131 125 123 120 117 120 121 119 120 119 118 119 128 135 135 135 ADJ. POT. INT. 126 129 123 121 116 111 111 112 109 111 111 110 112 120 123 122 122 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.9 -53.1 -53.2 -52.9 -53.3 -53.1 -53.3 -53.3 -53.7 -53.3 -53.3 -52.9 -53.2 -53.2 -52.9 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 5 6 7 8 7 8 9 9 9 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 71 70 68 66 64 60 57 54 52 53 51 48 42 45 45 48 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 78 59 35 24 36 60 79 90 100 104 110 117 120 117 102 104 96 200 MB DIV 10 22 23 27 50 66 63 25 20 27 17 12 24 -1 2 5 13 700-850 TADV -12 -14 -12 8 9 2 0 -10 15 -2 4 -2 -3 -2 0 2 0 LAND (KM) 828 957 1119 1305 1478 1784 2047 2214 2087 1973 1845 1692 1501 1272 1138 1074 1079 LAT (DEG N) 15.2 16.3 17.1 17.9 18.6 19.3 19.7 19.6 19.7 19.8 19.8 19.4 18.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 25.2 26.3 27.7 29.3 30.9 34.0 36.6 38.6 40.6 42.5 44.8 47.2 49.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 16 17 16 14 10 10 9 10 11 12 11 9 4 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 11 16 7 5 4 2 8 8 2 3 5 2 2 16 35 40 37 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 14 CX,CY: -10/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 636 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 14. 18. 22. 25. 26. 28. 28. 29. 29. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. -1. -7. -13. -19. -23. -25. -27. -27. -26. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 8. 9. 8. 6. 6. 5. 5. 8. 13. 17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.2 25.2 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922020 INVEST 09/04/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.65 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.06 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.27 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.73 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 128.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.81 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.0 27.5 to 139.6 0.63 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.26 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.8% 14.3% 10.4% 7.2% 0.0% 0.0% 8.1% 0.0% Logistic: 5.9% 10.5% 7.1% 3.2% 1.1% 3.4% 1.0% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.9% 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% Consensus: 3.5% 8.5% 6.0% 3.5% 0.4% 1.2% 3.2% 0.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922020 INVEST 09/04/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 26 26 27 29 32 33 34 33 31 31 30 30 33 38 42 18HR AGO 25 24 24 24 25 27 30 31 32 31 29 29 28 28 31 36 40 12HR AGO 25 22 21 21 22 24 27 28 29 28 26 26 25 25 28 33 37 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 18 21 22 23 22 20 20 19 19 22 27 31 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT