* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922020 07/28/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 34 40 45 51 53 49 45 46 42 44 47 50 53 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 34 40 45 49 52 48 44 44 41 43 45 48 51 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 30 33 35 35 34 31 28 26 26 26 29 32 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 10 6 6 5 5 12 12 24 22 24 17 22 18 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 -1 0 0 2 7 9 7 2 3 -2 1 -4 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 358 11 67 161 266 265 238 229 242 244 238 226 236 223 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.5 27.8 28.1 28.1 28.6 29.1 29.0 29.0 28.3 28.6 28.9 28.9 28.9 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.9 POT. INT. (KT) 133 137 141 142 149 156 154 154 143 147 150 149 149 152 154 157 168 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 137 141 142 149 156 154 151 136 138 138 132 130 131 133 136 144 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.9 -52.4 -52.5 -52.6 -52.2 -52.1 -51.7 -51.9 -52.1 -52.0 -52.0 -51.8 -51.7 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.5 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 11 11 11 11 9 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 70 66 63 64 60 61 55 50 45 47 49 54 56 58 N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 18 19 19 20 19 19 19 15 12 11 8 8 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 102 99 97 98 87 70 47 36 14 -16 -41 -53 -57 -48 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 78 66 71 60 55 46 65 72 15 -16 -7 32 19 -3 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -16 -18 -12 -6 2 9 10 11 6 -7 -10 4 -3 2 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 922 912 878 730 630 498 101 73 67 182 203 240 223 154 152 230 195 LAT (DEG N) 13.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 50.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 18 18 18 20 20 18 17 16 14 13 11 8 7 7 8 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 14 21 41 30 35 40 77 55 38 38 44 45 43 42 43 59 49 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 569 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 8. 16. 21. 26. 29. 32. 35. 38. 39. 40. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 8. 6. 3. -0. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -9. -14. -16. -20. -19. -19. -18. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 9. 15. 20. 26. 28. 24. 20. 21. 17. 19. 22. 25. 28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.1 50.2 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922020 INVEST 07/28/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.82 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.19 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.57 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.58 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 102.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.83 1.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.3 27.5 to 139.6 0.78 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.44 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.3% 19.7% 13.9% 9.8% 0.0% 0.0% 13.4% 0.0% Logistic: 2.7% 20.7% 10.1% 1.8% 0.7% 4.7% 5.4% 4.5% Bayesian: 0.6% 4.6% 1.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 2.4% 0.8% Consensus: 2.8% 15.0% 8.5% 3.9% 0.2% 1.8% 7.1% 1.8% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922020 INVEST 07/28/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922020 INVEST 07/28/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 29 32 34 40 45 49 52 48 44 44 41 43 45 48 51 18HR AGO 25 24 26 29 31 37 42 46 49 45 41 41 38 40 42 45 48 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 26 32 37 41 44 40 36 36 33 35 37 40 43 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 23 28 32 35 31 27 27 24 26 28 31 34 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT