* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922020 07/28/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 29 32 35 41 48 54 57 54 52 50 50 52 55 59 63 V (KT) LAND 25 26 29 32 35 41 48 54 48 48 45 43 43 46 49 53 56 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 29 32 36 38 38 34 31 29 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 13 15 7 2 3 8 11 19 22 21 21 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 -3 -2 1 1 9 12 12 5 4 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 8 358 2 25 155 281 209 246 223 246 205 212 202 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.8 27.6 27.8 28.1 28.2 28.8 28.9 29.4 28.6 28.4 28.6 28.9 29.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 136 134 137 141 142 152 153 161 147 143 146 152 154 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 136 134 137 141 142 152 153 161 142 134 135 143 144 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -53.0 -52.7 -52.6 -52.8 -52.1 -52.2 -51.7 -52.0 -51.8 -52.1 -51.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 12 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 71 70 67 63 59 57 52 48 44 38 42 48 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 18 18 19 19 20 21 20 17 14 11 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 105 99 103 105 113 94 73 72 63 25 13 -4 -27 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 101 114 89 81 72 42 49 59 42 -27 -19 -3 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -18 -16 -16 -12 -2 6 1 10 -14 -6 -6 -3 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 961 915 885 878 715 570 378 11 0 56 133 171 226 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 48.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 18 19 19 18 19 18 17 15 11 11 14 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 27 15 18 37 33 38 37 101 42 41 37 39 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 532 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 16. 21. 26. 29. 32. 36. 39. 40. 42. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 8. 5. 3. 1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -4. -9. -14. -15. -15. -14. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -7. -6. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 10. 16. 23. 29. 32. 29. 27. 25. 25. 27. 30. 34. 38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.4 48.0 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922020 INVEST 07/28/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 5.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.72 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.17 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.76 2.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.60 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 88.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.85 1.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.3 27.5 to 139.6 0.77 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 91.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.56 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.7% 21.0% 14.7% 10.4% 0.0% 0.0% 14.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.6% 20.3% 9.4% 2.0% 0.7% 4.0% 2.8% 2.6% Bayesian: 0.5% 4.8% 1.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.7% 1.6% 0.6% Consensus: 2.9% 15.4% 8.6% 4.2% 0.2% 1.6% 6.1% 1.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922020 INVEST 07/28/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922020 INVEST 07/28/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 29 32 35 41 48 54 48 48 45 43 43 46 49 53 56 18HR AGO 25 24 27 30 33 39 46 52 46 46 43 41 41 44 47 51 54 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 27 33 40 46 40 40 37 35 35 38 41 45 48 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 24 31 37 31 31 28 26 26 29 32 36 39 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT