* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922020 07/27/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 32 36 41 45 47 46 45 44 42 41 41 41 42 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 31 32 36 41 45 46 43 41 41 39 38 38 38 39 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 30 31 30 29 27 23 21 19 19 19 21 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 12 11 13 5 11 9 22 26 37 26 32 26 28 28 37 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 0 1 2 2 8 13 9 10 4 -1 -4 -2 -3 -2 -6 SHEAR DIR 17 2 347 332 317 239 239 242 245 237 233 224 215 216 223 235 239 SST (C) 27.6 27.6 27.5 27.8 28.1 28.6 29.0 28.8 28.9 28.6 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 135 135 133 137 141 148 155 151 153 147 151 150 151 150 153 155 157 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 135 133 137 141 148 155 151 153 143 141 137 134 131 133 135 135 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.1 -53.2 -53.1 -52.8 -52.7 -52.5 -52.3 -52.6 -52.4 -52.6 -52.5 -52.6 -52.3 -52.3 -51.9 -51.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 8 8 9 10 11 13 13 13 13 12 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 68 67 65 62 58 52 48 43 37 31 33 35 39 41 43 44 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 16 17 16 16 17 17 17 16 14 12 10 8 7 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 115 108 102 107 107 95 76 60 55 24 -12 -43 -39 -50 -22 -38 14 200 MB DIV 77 113 115 72 49 25 33 40 20 -1 -13 -24 -2 -4 0 -16 -4 700-850 TADV -14 -21 -19 -21 -15 0 -2 -6 -11 -16 -19 -12 -5 3 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 1073 982 927 923 858 663 495 115 11 56 114 152 197 131 85 124 174 LAT (DEG N) 12.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 46.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 19 20 19 19 19 18 18 18 19 15 12 10 8 7 8 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 31 22 14 22 42 34 37 67 52 45 34 41 54 41 38 39 40 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 497 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 16. 21. 26. 29. 32. 35. 38. 39. 40. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 2. -3. -8. -11. -14. -17. -20. -24. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -13. -16. -18. -18. -19. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 7. 11. 16. 20. 22. 21. 20. 19. 17. 16. 16. 16. 17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.4 46.3 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922020 INVEST 07/27/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.67 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.17 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.38 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.59 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 100.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.84 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.3 27.5 to 139.6 0.75 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 85.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.53 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.8% 16.9% 11.9% 7.9% 0.0% 0.0% 11.5% 0.0% Logistic: 2.9% 14.0% 6.8% 2.1% 0.6% 1.9% 1.3% 0.7% Bayesian: 0.8% 1.4% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% Consensus: 2.5% 10.8% 6.4% 3.3% 0.2% 0.8% 4.4% 0.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922020 INVEST 07/27/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922020 INVEST 07/27/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 31 32 36 41 45 46 43 41 41 39 38 38 38 39 18HR AGO 25 24 26 29 30 34 39 43 44 41 39 39 37 36 36 36 37 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 25 29 34 38 39 36 34 34 32 31 31 31 32 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 20 25 29 30 27 25 25 23 22 22 22 23 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT