* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922020 07/27/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 34 40 47 56 59 64 62 63 61 62 60 59 59 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 31 34 40 47 56 59 64 62 63 61 62 60 59 59 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 30 33 37 40 43 43 43 43 44 46 49 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 17 11 17 19 6 6 5 4 10 14 16 14 15 24 26 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 -1 -1 -2 0 7 7 3 9 1 2 -1 -2 -2 -3 -4 SHEAR DIR 5 16 3 351 7 16 6 188 263 169 200 194 258 301 334 352 3 SST (C) 27.9 27.8 28.0 28.1 28.3 28.4 28.2 28.5 28.8 28.8 29.2 29.1 29.2 29.6 29.3 28.8 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 139 137 139 140 142 142 141 145 151 151 157 154 156 162 155 145 146 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 137 139 140 142 140 140 143 149 146 149 141 139 139 129 119 118 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.8 -53.0 -53.4 -53.3 -52.9 -52.9 -52.5 -52.6 -52.0 -51.8 -51.6 -51.8 -51.7 -51.9 -52.3 -51.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 7 7 700-500 MB RH 66 65 67 67 65 62 64 65 60 57 56 57 58 65 67 69 69 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 18 19 20 19 20 21 19 18 15 13 10 9 7 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 129 126 111 110 119 108 85 59 37 36 -11 -42 -55 -41 -32 -35 -17 200 MB DIV 73 97 121 127 73 27 14 49 43 36 -35 -22 -6 21 30 45 14 700-850 TADV -9 -12 -19 -21 -17 -1 9 4 10 13 9 5 11 6 9 9 4 LAND (KM) 1125 999 889 816 773 789 700 718 654 467 503 723 903 1130 1188 1233 1229 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.1 12.0 12.0 12.2 12.8 14.1 16.1 18.3 20.5 22.7 25.0 27.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 45.0 47.0 48.6 50.1 51.5 53.6 55.5 57.2 59.5 61.9 64.2 65.8 66.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 20 18 15 14 12 10 13 13 16 16 15 12 11 9 6 3 2 HEAT CONTENT 34 35 23 21 23 32 35 32 49 35 42 24 25 22 17 15 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 20 CX,CY: -19/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 497 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 0. 3. 9. 16. 21. 26. 29. 32. 35. 38. 40. 40. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 0. -2. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. -2. -4. -9. -13. -17. -18. -20. -21. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 9. 15. 22. 31. 34. 39. 37. 38. 36. 37. 35. 34. 34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.0 45.0 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922020 INVEST 07/27/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.50 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.18 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.64 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.61 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 86.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.85 1.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.1 27.5 to 139.6 0.77 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 98.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.59 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.4% 18.5% 12.8% 8.7% 0.0% 0.0% 12.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.0% 12.7% 5.1% 1.8% 0.7% 4.1% 6.5% 15.8% Bayesian: 0.5% 7.0% 1.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.7% 0.5% 8.6% Consensus: 3.0% 12.7% 6.5% 3.5% 0.2% 1.6% 6.3% 8.2% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922020 INVEST 07/27/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922020 INVEST 07/27/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 31 34 40 47 56 59 64 62 63 61 62 60 59 59 18HR AGO 25 24 26 29 32 38 45 54 57 62 60 61 59 60 58 57 57 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 27 33 40 49 52 57 55 56 54 55 53 52 52 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 24 31 40 43 48 46 47 45 46 44 43 43 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT