* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922020 07/27/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 35 43 48 56 60 63 61 59 57 57 57 59 59 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 35 43 48 56 60 63 51 45 43 43 43 45 45 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 29 32 36 39 42 42 35 34 32 31 31 33 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 16 14 11 12 6 5 3 16 14 24 22 24 16 18 19 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -5 -4 -2 1 0 6 11 12 12 11 1 -1 -4 0 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 14 359 13 355 347 31 285 249 248 235 227 220 220 205 211 214 221 SST (C) 27.8 27.7 27.5 27.5 27.8 28.0 28.2 28.4 28.7 29.3 28.3 28.9 29.1 29.2 29.2 28.9 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 136 134 132 133 137 140 143 145 149 159 143 151 153 155 155 149 155 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 134 132 133 137 140 143 145 149 159 140 141 142 142 139 131 133 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.0 -52.7 -53.1 -53.3 -52.8 -52.7 -52.4 -52.5 -52.4 -52.3 -52.4 -52.5 -52.5 -52.2 -52.5 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 6 6 6 7 8 9 9 10 10 12 12 11 10 11 11 700-500 MB RH 70 69 70 70 69 61 55 51 46 42 37 35 38 45 48 49 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 18 18 19 20 19 20 20 19 16 14 11 10 7 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 106 106 93 88 88 108 111 98 85 100 77 37 6 -10 -41 -45 -55 200 MB DIV 91 76 99 141 160 45 29 53 55 45 -15 -17 -16 20 0 -9 2 700-850 TADV -5 -10 -11 -22 -21 -11 -1 1 6 -5 -15 -7 -2 2 2 3 0 LAND (KM) 1330 1235 1153 1073 1011 928 677 581 319 24 -48 35 109 214 293 201 148 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 42.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 14 15 17 18 19 19 18 17 17 16 11 10 11 10 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 25 22 23 24 19 29 32 32 36 99 40 52 38 47 51 44 45 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 530 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 9. 16. 21. 26. 29. 32. 35. 39. 40. 41. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 4. 2. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. -0. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. -1. -5. -10. -14. -16. -18. -19. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 18. 23. 31. 35. 38. 36. 34. 32. 32. 32. 34. 34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.0 42.2 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922020 INVEST 07/27/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.64 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.15 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.58 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.63 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 77.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.86 1.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.4 27.5 to 139.6 0.73 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 113.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.66 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.1% 18.9% 13.2% 8.8% 0.0% 0.0% 13.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.8% 17.9% 6.7% 1.5% 0.6% 3.7% 4.2% 4.2% Bayesian: 0.5% 5.4% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 3.7% 3.4% Consensus: 2.8% 14.1% 7.0% 3.4% 0.2% 1.4% 7.0% 2.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922020 INVEST 07/27/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922020 INVEST 07/27/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 29 32 35 43 48 56 60 63 51 45 43 43 43 45 45 18HR AGO 25 24 26 29 32 40 45 53 57 60 48 42 40 40 40 42 42 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 27 35 40 48 52 55 43 37 35 35 35 37 37 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 26 31 39 43 46 34 28 26 26 26 28 28 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT