* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922020 07/27/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 31 35 39 47 54 64 72 77 77 72 72 69 70 71 70 V (KT) LAND 25 27 31 35 39 47 54 64 72 77 74 50 55 53 53 55 47 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 29 31 35 39 44 50 55 54 39 40 39 39 41 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 9 16 14 9 10 3 7 10 16 21 23 24 14 18 18 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -3 -2 0 0 2 9 13 12 15 6 4 0 2 -4 1 SHEAR DIR 18 23 1 340 342 343 291 307 217 254 212 221 192 202 158 169 185 SST (C) 27.4 27.6 27.6 27.4 27.4 27.7 28.0 28.6 28.5 28.8 29.3 28.3 28.8 29.2 29.4 29.3 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 131 133 133 131 132 136 140 148 147 151 159 143 149 155 158 157 153 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 133 133 131 132 136 140 148 147 151 158 137 140 142 144 144 138 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.4 -53.3 -53.0 -53.4 -53.3 -52.9 -52.9 -52.3 -52.3 -51.9 -52.2 -52.1 -52.6 -52.6 -52.8 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 6 6 8 8 9 9 10 11 12 11 11 10 11 700-500 MB RH 69 68 68 68 68 64 54 51 48 42 41 38 39 43 47 48 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 18 18 19 21 20 22 23 24 23 19 18 15 13 12 10 850 MB ENV VOR 94 92 83 79 79 93 103 98 87 82 88 46 23 -8 -5 -37 -29 200 MB DIV 79 93 95 111 122 68 36 41 84 55 32 -24 -1 -2 0 -4 4 700-850 TADV -8 -6 -12 -20 -21 -17 0 6 7 7 -9 -11 -4 3 3 4 0 LAND (KM) 1482 1381 1292 1204 1119 1001 858 617 508 134 0 -11 124 119 105 188 -13 LAT (DEG N) 11.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 40.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 15 17 17 18 19 18 17 17 16 14 12 10 9 11 13 HEAT CONTENT 15 20 19 15 22 16 40 35 29 70 74 37 41 38 50 57 33 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 525 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 9. 15. 21. 26. 29. 32. 35. 38. 40. 41. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 8. 6. 3. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 3. 5. 7. 8. 5. -1. -3. -7. -9. -11. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 10. 14. 22. 29. 39. 47. 52. 52. 47. 47. 44. 45. 46. 45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.9 40.3 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922020 INVEST 07/27/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.67 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.12 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 36.6 to 2.8 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.9 to -2.9 999.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 90.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.85 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.1 27.5 to 139.6 0.71 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 100.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.60 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 6.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922020 INVEST 07/27/20 00 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922020 INVEST 07/27/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 31 35 39 47 54 64 72 77 74 50 55 53 53 55 47 18HR AGO 25 24 28 32 36 44 51 61 69 74 71 47 52 50 50 52 44 12HR AGO 25 22 21 25 29 37 44 54 62 67 64 40 45 43 43 45 37 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 19 27 34 44 52 57 54 30 35 33 33 35 27 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT