* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922020 07/26/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 34 38 46 52 60 68 72 78 81 80 82 83 82 81 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 34 38 46 52 60 68 72 78 81 80 82 83 82 81 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 30 32 34 39 42 45 52 61 69 73 75 76 77 79 78 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 9 11 16 16 13 12 3 4 6 4 10 7 4 9 12 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 -2 -4 -3 1 0 2 4 4 4 6 9 8 0 3 4 SHEAR DIR 52 19 3 4 6 353 37 71 71 206 159 191 138 104 25 46 70 SST (C) 27.7 27.4 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.9 28.1 28.0 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.9 28.7 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 135 131 136 136 134 135 134 135 137 141 140 144 145 146 151 146 144 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 131 136 136 134 135 132 134 136 140 138 141 139 135 133 123 119 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.1 -53.5 -53.3 -53.0 -53.6 -53.0 -53.1 -52.6 -52.7 -52.4 -52.2 -51.6 -51.8 -52.1 -52.2 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 8 9 9 10 10 9 8 700-500 MB RH 70 69 68 68 68 70 63 63 65 60 57 51 49 50 56 54 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 15 16 18 19 21 21 20 20 20 21 20 19 18 17 14 12 850 MB ENV VOR 84 88 90 90 89 80 80 70 43 24 23 -8 -47 -35 -15 -46 -65 200 MB DIV 62 81 92 75 86 100 22 5 12 1 60 -6 13 0 28 -9 14 700-850 TADV -5 -7 -9 -12 -18 -19 -9 3 9 -4 2 3 0 -2 7 0 6 LAND (KM) 1638 1491 1355 1244 1154 1014 970 999 949 894 591 468 656 900 853 843 954 LAT (DEG N) 11.8 11.9 11.9 12.0 12.1 12.5 13.3 14.4 16.2 17.9 19.8 22.0 24.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 38.5 40.2 41.8 43.3 44.7 47.3 49.6 51.7 54.2 57.1 60.3 63.5 66.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 16 15 14 13 13 11 13 15 17 18 19 18 16 13 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 13 14 26 25 28 25 17 22 28 34 33 38 18 18 15 15 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 471 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 9. 15. 21. 25. 28. 31. 34. 37. 38. 38. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 9. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -4. -5. -7. -10. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 13. 21. 27. 35. 43. 47. 53. 56. 55. 57. 58. 57. 56. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.8 38.5 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922020 INVEST 07/26/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.62 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.14 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.60 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.67 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 79.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.86 1.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.4 27.5 to 139.6 0.73 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 79.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.51 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.2% 20.1% 14.1% 9.7% 0.0% 0.0% 12.5% 0.0% Logistic: 3.5% 19.3% 7.9% 1.6% 0.7% 4.1% 5.4% 14.2% Bayesian: 0.8% 13.3% 2.7% 0.1% 0.0% 2.3% 1.8% 6.2% Consensus: 3.5% 17.6% 8.2% 3.8% 0.2% 2.2% 6.6% 6.8% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922020 INVEST 07/26/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922020 INVEST 07/26/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 30 34 38 46 52 60 68 72 78 81 80 82 83 82 81 18HR AGO 25 24 27 31 35 43 49 57 65 69 75 78 77 79 80 79 78 12HR AGO 25 22 21 25 29 37 43 51 59 63 69 72 71 73 74 73 72 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 19 27 33 41 49 53 59 62 61 63 64 63 62 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT