* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922020 07/26/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 26 30 37 48 60 70 76 86 92 94 94 96 95 94 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 26 30 37 48 60 70 76 86 92 94 94 96 95 94 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 23 24 27 30 35 41 48 57 65 69 73 78 84 85 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 15 11 12 19 13 14 6 7 4 7 5 7 10 10 21 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 0 -2 -5 -2 -5 -5 0 3 3 7 7 6 0 -5 -2 SHEAR DIR 59 42 43 19 6 1 353 38 310 209 261 180 164 139 8 17 20 SST (C) 28.1 27.6 27.6 27.9 28.1 27.8 28.0 27.8 27.9 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.5 28.4 28.7 28.4 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 142 134 133 136 139 135 138 135 137 141 142 143 146 144 149 143 143 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 134 133 136 139 135 137 135 137 140 140 140 141 136 138 128 124 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.1 -53.3 -53.5 -53.3 -53.4 -53.3 -53.1 -53.0 -52.5 -52.6 -51.9 -51.8 -51.3 -51.4 -51.3 -51.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 8 8 8 9 10 10 10 9 700-500 MB RH 69 71 70 70 70 70 64 56 55 54 51 54 52 52 51 54 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 15 16 18 17 20 20 21 21 25 25 25 23 24 22 22 850 MB ENV VOR 64 78 85 91 91 85 91 83 74 55 57 58 30 -8 0 8 -5 200 MB DIV 37 55 68 76 70 87 56 62 8 40 50 61 0 -3 4 12 -10 700-850 TADV -1 -6 -9 -9 -10 -13 -15 -4 1 -5 2 6 15 0 8 5 -4 LAND (KM) 1637 1593 1450 1329 1228 1081 973 956 999 837 759 456 306 478 644 926 814 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 11.5 11.4 11.3 11.4 11.8 12.4 13.4 14.7 16.1 17.3 18.8 20.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 36.9 38.8 40.3 41.6 42.9 45.4 47.8 50.1 52.7 55.5 58.6 61.4 64.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 21 17 14 13 13 12 12 13 15 15 16 16 16 15 15 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 20 13 18 29 33 35 24 17 36 31 34 29 53 34 22 16 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 23 CX,CY: -22/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 458 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -0. 3. 9. 16. 22. 27. 31. 34. 37. 41. 42. 43. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 8. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 0. 2. 1. 4. 4. 5. 5. 9. 8. 7. 4. 4. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 10. 17. 28. 40. 50. 56. 66. 72. 74. 74. 76. 75. 74. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 11.5 36.9 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922020 INVEST 07/26/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.59 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.15 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.58 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.66 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 59.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.88 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.8 27.5 to 139.6 0.80 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.42 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.2% 21.7% 8.7% 2.1% 1.4% 7.9% 10.9% 27.5% Bayesian: 0.4% 9.0% 1.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.9% 2.8% 16.1% Consensus: 1.2% 10.2% 3.4% 0.7% 0.5% 3.0% 4.6% 14.5% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922020 INVEST 07/26/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922020 INVEST 07/26/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 21 23 26 30 37 48 60 70 76 86 92 94 94 96 95 94 18HR AGO 20 19 21 24 28 35 46 58 68 74 84 90 92 92 94 93 92 12HR AGO 20 17 16 19 23 30 41 53 63 69 79 85 87 87 89 88 87 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT