* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922020 07/26/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 22 25 29 38 50 60 70 77 84 90 93 93 93 95 99 V (KT) LAND 20 20 22 25 29 38 50 60 70 77 84 90 93 90 90 92 96 V (KT) LGEM 20 19 19 19 20 23 27 32 38 44 51 55 58 53 62 67 76 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 11 14 13 9 7 2 3 9 10 13 10 9 6 6 1 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -4 -4 -2 2 5 1 -3 -1 6 8 8 12 13 13 2 SHEAR DIR 50 47 46 34 30 51 124 113 237 230 249 264 256 256 215 95 4 SST (C) 28.2 28.5 28.5 28.3 28.0 27.6 27.0 27.2 27.5 27.8 28.0 28.6 29.0 29.2 28.8 28.4 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 142 145 144 141 138 133 126 129 133 137 139 147 152 155 148 142 147 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 145 144 141 138 133 126 129 133 137 139 146 148 147 138 131 134 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.7 -53.2 -53.5 -53.8 -53.3 -53.6 -53.2 -53.3 -53.0 -52.8 -52.4 -52.2 -51.8 -51.6 -51.2 -51.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 8 9 9 9 10 11 11 10 700-500 MB RH 74 72 73 71 71 67 62 57 53 49 47 48 49 52 51 51 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 14 14 14 15 16 18 19 20 21 23 25 26 26 25 25 24 850 MB ENV VOR 51 39 56 63 65 61 72 81 74 60 61 71 83 73 34 8 -5 200 MB DIV 78 58 60 78 68 46 67 53 62 35 53 71 59 27 -5 13 4 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -4 -7 -5 -7 -6 -6 -1 -1 -2 0 7 9 10 8 2 LAND (KM) 1651 1602 1587 1597 1589 1431 1283 1169 1117 876 662 397 123 0 46 140 342 LAT (DEG N) 10.7 10.8 11.0 11.3 11.6 12.7 13.5 14.5 15.4 16.2 16.4 16.8 17.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 34.0 35.5 36.7 37.8 38.9 41.6 44.6 47.9 51.3 55.1 58.9 62.3 65.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 13 12 11 12 15 16 16 18 18 18 15 12 9 9 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 12 17 19 18 16 15 7 17 14 26 30 31 76 88 52 31 34 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 20 CX,CY: -19/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 387 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. 2. 9. 16. 22. 27. 31. 34. 37. 41. 42. 44. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 9. 8. 7. 7. 7. 7. 9. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 6. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 10. 12. 12. 11. 9. 7. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 5. 9. 18. 30. 40. 50. 57. 64. 70. 73. 73. 73. 75. 79. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 10.7 34.0 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922020 INVEST 07/26/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.66 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.11 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.83 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.54 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 50.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.89 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.1 27.5 to 139.6 0.84 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.46 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.8% 17.8% 6.6% 1.4% 1.0% 4.4% 4.6% 5.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 3.2% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% Consensus: 0.6% 7.0% 2.4% 0.5% 0.3% 1.5% 1.6% 1.7% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922020 INVEST 07/26/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 20 22 25 29 38 50 60 70 77 84 90 93 90 90 92 96 18HR AGO 20 19 21 24 28 37 49 59 69 76 83 89 92 89 89 91 95 12HR AGO 20 17 16 19 23 32 44 54 64 71 78 84 87 84 84 86 90 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT