* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922020 07/26/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 22 25 29 40 50 60 68 77 83 89 91 87 90 91 94 V (KT) LAND 20 20 22 25 29 40 50 60 68 77 83 89 91 87 75 81 84 V (KT) LGEM 20 19 19 19 20 23 27 32 37 43 48 52 54 54 48 54 61 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 11 12 15 13 8 1 3 8 12 13 15 12 14 10 4 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 0 -3 -3 1 6 1 -4 2 7 11 10 11 8 10 5 SHEAR DIR 61 46 31 47 59 53 103 249 194 241 205 247 241 252 227 180 89 SST (C) 27.9 28.0 28.3 28.4 28.3 27.7 27.1 26.9 27.3 27.8 28.0 28.5 28.9 29.2 29.0 28.5 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 138 138 142 143 142 134 127 126 131 138 140 146 151 155 151 143 142 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 138 142 143 142 134 127 126 131 138 140 146 148 149 139 132 130 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -54.0 -53.8 -53.3 -53.5 -53.3 -53.5 -53.4 -53.3 -53.3 -52.8 -52.8 -52.1 -52.1 -51.6 -51.4 -51.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 7 9 9 9 9 10 10 11 700-500 MB RH 72 72 72 71 69 66 64 57 53 48 42 43 48 51 53 53 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 13 13 14 17 18 20 20 22 23 26 26 24 25 25 24 850 MB ENV VOR 65 52 46 53 60 60 70 71 66 52 59 56 85 85 60 11 -5 200 MB DIV 96 86 46 39 60 33 47 30 27 21 68 64 62 31 51 -20 -10 700-850 TADV -5 -4 -8 -6 -2 -5 -12 -9 1 0 0 17 7 14 6 12 4 LAND (KM) 1636 1694 1663 1656 1658 1599 1450 1313 1219 1018 766 434 125 31 -13 46 252 LAT (DEG N) 10.7 10.9 11.1 11.4 11.7 12.6 13.7 14.7 15.7 16.6 17.0 17.1 17.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 32.0 33.5 34.7 35.8 36.9 39.5 42.4 45.7 49.4 53.7 57.9 61.8 64.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 13 12 11 12 15 16 18 20 21 20 17 13 11 8 8 10 HEAT CONTENT 11 11 14 18 19 13 6 8 12 22 30 28 71 91 57 33 30 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 20 CX,CY: -19/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 420 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. 2. 9. 16. 22. 27. 31. 34. 37. 41. 42. 44. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 6. 7. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 5. 5. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 13. 13. 8. 9. 7. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 5. 9. 20. 31. 40. 48. 57. 63. 69. 71. 67. 70. 71. 74. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 10.7 32.0 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922020 INVEST 07/26/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.63 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.10 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.79 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.54 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 61.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.88 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.4 27.5 to 139.6 0.83 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.44 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.2% 19.7% 8.2% 2.3% 1.8% 4.5% 4.8% 5.3% Bayesian: 0.1% 1.9% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.5% Consensus: 0.8% 7.2% 2.9% 0.8% 0.6% 1.6% 1.6% 1.9% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922020 INVEST 07/26/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 20 22 25 29 40 50 60 68 77 83 89 91 87 75 81 84 18HR AGO 20 19 21 24 28 39 49 59 67 76 82 88 90 86 74 80 83 12HR AGO 20 17 16 19 23 34 44 54 62 71 77 83 85 81 69 75 78 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT