* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922020 07/25/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 33 39 46 53 60 65 68 71 73 74 76 79 83 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 33 39 46 53 60 65 68 71 73 74 76 79 83 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 31 35 39 44 49 52 55 54 53 53 56 62 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 12 14 16 18 11 7 9 7 13 13 22 18 16 15 11 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 0 -2 -4 -2 0 0 0 0 4 5 3 4 2 5 7 SHEAR DIR 66 62 48 44 50 50 31 324 323 276 248 235 225 216 201 186 173 SST (C) 28.2 28.0 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.1 27.5 27.0 27.0 27.2 27.7 28.0 28.3 28.5 28.9 28.7 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 142 138 136 137 138 139 132 126 127 130 136 139 143 145 151 147 144 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 138 136 137 138 139 132 126 127 130 136 139 141 140 143 136 133 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.7 -54.1 -53.8 -53.3 -53.5 -53.0 -53.2 -53.1 -53.2 -53.0 -53.0 -52.7 -52.3 -51.9 -51.8 -51.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 4 5 5 6 6 7 8 9 9 10 10 11 700-500 MB RH 70 71 72 69 68 65 63 59 53 52 50 44 45 46 49 50 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 11 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 62 59 44 45 50 44 46 64 64 50 31 35 46 43 43 14 0 200 MB DIV 88 88 64 29 23 43 8 25 18 28 39 42 24 46 13 11 4 700-850 TADV -4 -3 -5 -6 -6 -7 -17 -19 -14 -5 -16 -8 -6 -4 3 4 6 LAND (KM) 1437 1588 1692 1715 1705 1711 1616 1453 1343 1250 1065 817 543 232 56 168 213 LAT (DEG N) 10.5 10.6 10.9 11.2 11.5 12.2 13.1 13.9 15.1 16.0 16.8 17.1 17.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 30.0 31.5 32.6 33.7 34.7 37.0 39.7 42.6 45.8 49.4 53.3 57.1 60.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 13 11 11 11 13 14 15 17 19 18 18 15 13 11 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 23 13 10 11 14 18 10 5 9 10 20 31 28 35 68 43 34 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 19 CX,CY: -18/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 410 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 9. 15. 21. 25. 28. 31. 34. 36. 38. 39. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 14. 21. 28. 35. 40. 43. 46. 48. 49. 51. 54. 58. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.5 30.0 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922020 INVEST 07/25/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.59 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.09 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.83 2.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.52 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 83.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.85 1.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.0 27.5 to 139.6 0.76 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.41 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.9% 19.0% 13.5% 9.9% 0.0% 0.0% 11.1% 0.0% Logistic: 2.3% 19.0% 8.3% 2.0% 1.6% 4.8% 4.6% 3.8% Bayesian: 0.2% 3.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% Consensus: 2.8% 13.9% 7.5% 4.0% 0.5% 1.7% 5.3% 1.3% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922020 INVEST 07/25/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 30 33 39 46 53 60 65 68 71 73 74 76 79 83 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 31 37 44 51 58 63 66 69 71 72 74 77 81 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 26 32 39 46 53 58 61 64 66 67 69 72 76 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 24 31 38 45 50 53 56 58 59 61 64 68 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT