* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922020 07/25/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 37 44 52 60 68 75 80 86 87 88 89 93 95 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 34 37 44 52 60 68 75 80 86 87 88 89 93 95 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 30 32 34 38 43 48 55 64 70 76 78 76 75 77 80 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 11 11 16 19 17 13 7 11 6 11 15 18 12 14 12 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 1 4 1 -4 -5 -4 0 -2 -2 2 2 3 3 1 4 2 SHEAR DIR 91 64 59 53 50 66 42 5 344 283 297 231 250 221 227 186 220 SST (C) 28.1 27.9 28.1 28.4 28.5 28.4 27.9 27.7 26.9 27.2 27.4 27.9 28.0 28.3 28.6 28.7 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 142 137 138 142 144 142 136 134 125 129 132 138 139 142 147 147 148 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 137 138 141 143 142 136 134 124 129 132 138 138 138 141 138 138 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.3 -53.8 -54.2 -53.9 -53.5 -53.1 -53.2 -53.1 -53.2 -53.4 -53.0 -53.0 -52.4 -52.2 -51.7 -51.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 8 8 9 9 10 10 700-500 MB RH 67 66 70 72 72 72 69 67 58 55 51 47 46 46 47 50 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 11 11 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 83 83 72 52 44 57 57 51 59 59 45 33 33 44 34 15 0 200 MB DIV 54 93 99 75 33 35 13 23 7 16 30 37 45 38 12 6 0 700-850 TADV -4 -6 -7 -6 -6 -1 -8 -13 -17 -4 -10 -9 1 -4 6 3 9 LAND (KM) 1487 1688 1665 1621 1588 1569 1526 1391 1285 1209 1177 952 787 486 209 211 309 LAT (DEG N) 10.8 10.7 10.7 10.7 10.7 11.0 11.6 12.6 13.6 14.8 15.9 16.7 17.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 30.6 32.5 33.7 34.7 35.6 37.5 39.6 42.0 44.7 47.7 51.1 54.6 58.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 22 15 11 9 9 10 12 13 15 17 18 17 16 14 13 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 17 10 12 14 17 18 17 17 6 18 12 26 30 27 47 40 44 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 26 CX,CY: -25/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 270 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 3. 8. 16. 21. 25. 28. 31. 34. 37. 38. 39. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 8. 8. 9. 9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 6. 4. 3. 3. 5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 19. 27. 35. 43. 50. 55. 61. 62. 63. 64. 68. 70. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.8 30.6 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922020 INVEST 07/25/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.62 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.09 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.63 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.68 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 83.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.85 1.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.5 27.5 to 139.6 0.78 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.47 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.1% 20.2% 14.0% 9.7% 0.0% 0.0% 11.8% 0.0% Logistic: 5.5% 28.0% 13.3% 3.4% 2.4% 9.6% 16.9% 23.8% Bayesian: 1.1% 14.0% 2.9% 0.1% 0.0% 2.8% 8.3% 12.5% Consensus: 4.3% 20.7% 10.1% 4.4% 0.8% 4.1% 12.3% 12.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922020 INVEST 07/25/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 28 31 34 37 44 52 60 68 75 80 86 87 88 89 93 95 18HR AGO 25 24 27 30 33 40 48 56 64 71 76 82 83 84 85 89 91 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 27 34 42 50 58 65 70 76 77 78 79 83 85 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 25 33 41 49 56 61 67 68 69 70 74 76 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT