* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922020 07/25/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 23 24 29 36 43 49 55 61 66 69 70 71 74 74 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 23 24 29 36 43 49 55 61 66 69 70 71 74 74 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 21 21 22 23 25 27 29 31 32 34 34 34 33 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 12 14 13 11 14 6 4 5 3 13 14 23 24 28 23 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 10 8 9 6 -1 2 5 5 3 0 -3 0 -2 -1 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 57 52 56 65 67 79 129 207 258 246 271 272 251 256 247 236 233 SST (C) 27.6 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.6 27.8 27.4 26.9 26.9 26.6 26.9 27.6 27.9 28.1 28.6 28.8 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 133 137 137 137 133 136 131 125 125 122 125 134 138 140 147 150 151 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 137 137 137 133 136 131 125 125 120 125 134 138 139 144 144 145 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.5 -53.3 -53.7 -54.0 -53.4 -53.5 -53.0 -53.5 -53.4 -53.6 -53.5 -53.4 -53.2 -53.3 -53.1 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 8 9 9 10 10 700-500 MB RH 69 71 71 68 66 59 58 57 55 49 47 44 43 46 46 50 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 66 62 60 66 67 54 32 26 43 49 46 31 27 29 31 20 4 200 MB DIV 28 50 60 73 55 18 15 -31 -22 -4 7 20 19 25 14 8 -2 700-850 TADV -10 -13 -15 -12 -5 -7 -7 -11 -6 -7 2 1 6 -3 0 1 0 LAND (KM) 833 966 1090 1225 1380 1695 1816 1647 1411 1243 1117 1076 814 708 418 138 133 LAT (DEG N) 11.3 11.6 12.1 12.5 12.7 13.0 13.0 13.3 13.4 13.9 14.4 15.2 15.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 24.4 25.8 27.2 28.6 30.1 33.1 36.2 39.5 42.6 45.7 48.8 52.1 55.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 14 14 15 15 16 15 16 15 16 16 17 16 15 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 12 13 13 13 10 9 13 6 5 6 8 19 26 34 28 51 50 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 550 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -1. -0. 3. 9. 16. 22. 27. 30. 33. 36. 39. 40. 42. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 4. 1. -1. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 6. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 9. 16. 23. 29. 35. 41. 46. 49. 50. 51. 54. 54. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 11.3 24.4 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922020 INVEST 07/25/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.61 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.08 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.51 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.79 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 77.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.86 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.4 27.5 to 139.6 0.78 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.38 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.0% 10.6% 5.4% 1.3% 0.7% 2.6% 2.4% 1.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 1.8% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 2.4% 0.2% Consensus: 1.5% 4.1% 1.9% 0.4% 0.2% 0.9% 1.6% 0.4% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922020 INVEST 07/25/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 21 22 23 24 29 36 43 49 55 61 66 69 70 71 74 74 18HR AGO 20 19 20 21 22 27 34 41 47 53 59 64 67 68 69 72 72 12HR AGO 20 17 16 17 18 23 30 37 43 49 55 60 63 64 65 68 68 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT