* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922020 07/25/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 22 24 27 34 42 49 55 61 69 77 85 91 99 103 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 22 24 27 34 42 49 55 61 69 77 85 91 99 103 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 20 21 22 23 25 28 31 34 38 43 51 61 73 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 20 17 15 10 12 9 1 5 7 13 6 8 5 5 8 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 5 6 6 11 6 4 7 8 7 0 1 -1 -3 -5 -8 -8 SHEAR DIR 58 63 66 74 75 77 112 151 168 123 146 127 141 77 97 29 13 SST (C) 27.5 27.6 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.9 28.0 27.4 28.0 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.7 28.6 28.4 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 131 133 137 137 136 135 137 138 130 137 140 140 141 146 145 142 139 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 133 137 137 136 135 137 138 130 136 139 139 140 145 143 140 136 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.5 -53.6 -53.5 -53.7 -53.7 -53.4 -52.8 -53.0 -53.4 -53.7 -53.8 -53.8 -53.9 -53.7 -53.9 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 6 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 67 71 71 72 67 62 59 59 60 58 58 57 57 57 57 61 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 66 63 63 63 73 64 57 31 27 40 46 36 46 37 41 42 38 200 MB DIV 17 16 47 75 78 19 40 -12 -40 -37 -13 -34 -9 -25 -1 -19 6 700-850 TADV -10 -10 -12 -14 -10 0 0 0 2 4 4 1 0 -2 -2 -2 -2 LAND (KM) 673 808 923 1053 1191 1518 1824 1693 1507 1259 1081 918 800 685 631 608 623 LAT (DEG N) 11.2 11.5 11.9 12.3 12.6 12.7 12.5 12.1 11.6 10.9 10.4 10.0 9.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 22.9 24.2 25.5 26.9 28.3 31.4 34.3 37.3 39.8 42.1 43.8 45.5 47.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 14 14 14 15 14 14 12 10 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 12 12 13 12 13 8 12 18 13 33 42 37 30 32 35 33 30 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 578 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 3. 9. 16. 22. 27. 31. 34. 37. 40. 42. 43. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 14. 22. 29. 35. 41. 49. 57. 65. 71. 79. 83. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 11.2 22.9 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922020 INVEST 07/25/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.50 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.08 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.48 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.86 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 79.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.86 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.6 27.5 to 139.6 0.78 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.35 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.2% 5.9% 3.2% 0.5% 0.2% 1.2% 1.1% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.6% 0.1% Consensus: 1.2% 2.2% 1.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.5% 0.6% 0.2% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922020 INVEST 07/25/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 21 22 22 24 27 34 42 49 55 61 69 77 85 91 99 103 18HR AGO 20 19 20 20 22 25 32 40 47 53 59 67 75 83 89 97 101 12HR AGO 20 17 16 16 18 21 28 36 43 49 55 63 71 79 85 93 97 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT