* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922020 07/24/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 23 24 27 33 39 45 50 57 63 69 74 80 86 90 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 23 24 27 33 39 45 50 57 63 69 74 80 86 90 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 20 21 21 23 24 25 26 27 28 30 32 36 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 20 20 12 10 8 10 5 3 4 6 8 5 8 3 6 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 5 4 8 11 10 5 9 7 7 5 3 2 1 0 1 -5 SHEAR DIR 77 61 66 66 84 79 105 179 203 231 181 215 181 235 298 256 320 SST (C) 27.0 27.4 27.6 27.8 27.8 27.6 27.9 27.8 27.4 27.9 28.1 28.1 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.2 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 125 130 133 136 136 134 137 136 130 137 138 138 141 143 142 140 147 ADJ. POT. INT. 124 130 133 136 136 134 137 136 130 137 138 138 141 143 142 139 147 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.6 -53.5 -53.6 -53.4 -53.9 -53.0 -53.3 -52.8 -53.4 -53.5 -53.8 -53.7 -53.8 -53.5 -53.7 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 4 5 5 6 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 70 69 72 71 70 65 60 58 57 55 51 54 49 50 49 54 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 68 66 62 63 65 66 58 37 30 41 44 41 39 44 54 52 38 200 MB DIV 63 23 24 65 82 53 4 27 -40 -23 -33 -23 -28 -16 -16 -4 7 700-850 TADV -4 -9 -11 -14 -13 -1 -3 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 -2 0 -1 LAND (KM) 526 650 773 885 1026 1354 1709 1735 1538 1270 1068 901 757 634 572 516 400 LAT (DEG N) 11.1 11.3 11.7 12.1 12.5 12.9 12.8 12.3 11.8 11.3 11.1 10.9 10.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 21.5 22.7 23.9 25.2 26.7 29.9 33.2 36.4 39.6 42.3 44.7 46.9 49.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 13 14 16 16 16 16 14 13 11 11 10 11 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 4 11 12 13 11 11 10 17 12 33 43 31 26 32 33 42 54 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 593 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 3. 9. 16. 22. 27. 31. 34. 37. 40. 42. 43. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 9. 9. 10. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 13. 19. 25. 30. 37. 43. 49. 54. 60. 66. 70. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 11.1 21.5 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922020 INVEST 07/24/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.50 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.53 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.71 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 70.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.87 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.5 27.5 to 139.6 0.75 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.38 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.0% 5.8% 3.1% 0.7% 0.3% 1.3% 1.2% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.8% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% 1.9% 0.1% Consensus: 1.1% 2.2% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.7% 1.1% 0.2% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922020 INVEST 07/24/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 21 22 23 24 27 33 39 45 50 57 63 69 74 80 86 90 18HR AGO 20 19 20 21 22 25 31 37 43 48 55 61 67 72 78 84 88 12HR AGO 20 17 16 17 18 21 27 33 39 44 51 57 63 68 74 80 84 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT