* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922020 05/31/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 31 32 33 34 32 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 31 32 33 34 30 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 29 29 30 33 31 34 33 33 33 34 36 40 45 47 Storm Type SUBT SUBT SUBT EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 17 19 28 27 23 19 24 36 59 59 60 58 36 22 10 10 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -5 -3 -4 -8 -3 0 18 20 19 16 18 8 -1 -4 -6 -9 SHEAR DIR 315 325 329 338 314 301 232 188 211 235 257 268 282 280 332 1 353 SST (C) 22.0 21.4 21.3 21.3 20.9 21.1 15.6 3.6 1.2 2.7 1.7 7.2 9.7 11.2 12.5 14.7 16.7 POT. INT. (KT) 86 82 82 83 83 86 77 71 69 68 68 69 71 69 70 72 73 ADJ. POT. INT. 76 72 73 74 75 80 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A 68 69 67 68 69 69 200 MB T (C) -57.9 -58.0 -58.2 -58.4 -58.2 -58.6 -57.0 -54.9 -53.2 -53.7 -53.7 -53.7 -55.8 -57.5 -57.6 -58.1 -58.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 41 43 43 45 50 64 73 75 72 69 61 59 50 45 54 50 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 9 8 7 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -26 -28 -30 -16 -4 63 89 79 -10 -72 -45 -75 -83 -90 -2 11 -16 200 MB DIV -3 -4 7 34 28 86 32 86 71 -11 5 37 -48 -36 -23 -37 -46 700-850 TADV 4 2 3 5 9 10 8 98 126 42 -39 -122 -129 -106 -63 -18 -1 LAND (KM) 1434 1372 1324 1283 1239 1037 522 -28 146 475 875 1482 848 391 537 988 1082 LAT (DEG N) 31.7 32.2 32.7 33.3 34.1 36.7 42.1 49.5 57.0 62.8 64.9 63.5 59.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 58.9 59.2 59.1 58.6 57.8 56.1 55.2 57.5 59.2 54.9 42.9 30.5 20.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 6 9 11 21 34 39 35 29 28 30 31 22 23 21 17 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 9 CX,CY: -1/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 811 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 4. 3. 1. -0. -2. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 4. -1. -11. -21. -34. -46. -56. -63. -65. -62. -57. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 8. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 11. 13. 15. 16. 17. 18. 20. 22. 22. 22. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -11. -13. -14. -14. -15. -15. -15. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 2. -6. -17. -29. -42. -52. -54. -52. -48. -40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 31.7 58.9 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922020 INVEST 05/31/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.25 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.93 2.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.44 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 220.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.71 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 44.1 27.5 to 139.6 0.15 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.20 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 97.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.03 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.6% 11.9% 9.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 1.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 4.3% 3.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922020 INVEST 05/31/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922020 INVEST 05/31/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 30 31 32 33 34 30 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 29 30 31 32 33 29 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 28 29 30 26 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 22 23 19 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT