* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922020 05/30/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 36 37 39 38 36 37 32 25 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 36 37 39 38 36 37 32 25 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 33 33 34 34 35 38 39 43 46 48 51 53 52 49 Storm Type SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT EXTP EXTP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 38 28 17 19 20 31 28 13 24 38 50 53 42 24 29 22 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -10 -7 -2 -2 -2 -5 -1 5 13 11 9 3 -2 -6 -1 2 SHEAR DIR 226 243 240 256 283 312 309 300 229 193 225 254 305 358 36 35 46 SST (C) 24.4 22.5 22.1 22.4 22.1 21.1 20.4 20.9 6.7 0.7 3.0 1.1 7.2 10.1 12.1 15.3 18.0 POT. INT. (KT) 101 89 87 88 86 82 82 87 71 71 71 69 70 72 73 75 78 ADJ. POT. INT. 90 80 78 78 76 74 74 81 70 N/A N/A N/A 69 70 71 72 73 200 MB T (C) -57.5 -57.8 -58.0 -58.0 -57.8 -58.2 -58.4 -58.8 -57.5 -55.8 -54.6 -56.3 -55.5 -56.2 -56.6 -57.3 -57.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.7 -0.7 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.2 -0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 2 3 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 52 52 50 48 46 48 53 65 71 76 75 72 55 50 46 43 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 11 11 10 10 8 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -5 -24 -21 -26 -37 -36 -7 49 46 16 -19 -26 -45 -19 2 20 10 200 MB DIV 9 9 18 21 7 8 25 66 47 108 -24 -42 115 -55 -46 -40 -3 700-850 TADV 10 16 5 8 7 12 8 4 21 33 95 -26 -103 -57 3 24 4 LAND (KM) 1549 1601 1622 1534 1446 1306 1125 811 139 92 660 965 1244 693 392 573 353 LAT (DEG N) 28.8 29.8 30.7 31.5 32.3 33.7 35.7 39.3 45.6 53.7 62.1 66.8 64.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 55.7 56.2 56.7 56.9 57.1 57.2 56.6 55.4 54.6 54.8 51.7 39.6 24.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 9 8 7 9 14 25 37 43 40 32 34 35 35 29 22 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 12 CX,CY: -4/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 699 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 2. 3. 5. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. -0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 2. -3. -7. -12. -22. -32. -41. -47. -52. -53. -49. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 5. 3. 1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 13. 16. 17. 19. 21. 22. 24. 23. 23. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -6. -10. -12. -13. -14. -15. -15. -15. -15. -15. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 8. 6. 7. 2. -5. -13. -22. -27. -29. -29. -24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 28.8 55.7 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922020 INVEST 05/30/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.19 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.44 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.68 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 201.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.73 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 50.4 27.5 to 139.6 0.20 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.20 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 89.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.11 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.1% 10.4% 8.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 0.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 3.8% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922020 INVEST 05/30/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922020 INVEST 05/30/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 34 36 37 39 38 36 37 32 25 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 31 33 34 36 35 33 34 29 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 29 31 30 28 29 24 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 23 22 20 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT