* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922020 05/29/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 33 36 37 38 37 36 35 32 27 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 32 33 36 37 38 37 36 35 32 27 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 31 31 31 31 30 32 34 37 39 44 49 51 53 54 53 51 Storm Type TROP SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 45 42 30 23 22 22 23 20 19 28 45 41 32 22 18 15 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -5 -7 -6 -1 -6 -2 -2 0 12 10 13 4 2 -3 -8 -6 SHEAR DIR 223 229 244 236 246 270 306 284 218 210 223 254 301 347 9 27 51 SST (C) 24.8 24.5 23.0 22.3 22.2 21.4 20.2 20.4 8.7 1.3 3.8 2.2 7.9 10.9 13.4 16.2 18.1 POT. INT. (KT) 103 101 92 88 88 84 80 84 71 71 71 69 71 73 74 75 77 ADJ. POT. INT. 92 90 82 79 78 75 73 77 70 N/A N/A N/A 70 71 72 72 72 200 MB T (C) -57.4 -57.4 -57.7 -58.0 -58.2 -58.1 -58.6 -58.8 -58.6 -57.1 -56.4 -56.3 -56.2 -56.8 -57.7 -58.6 -57.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.7 -0.6 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 57 53 56 57 54 54 53 62 72 77 77 75 58 61 53 47 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 10 9 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 9 -5 -21 -20 -25 -42 -38 14 62 2 -44 -22 -53 -92 -34 18 31 200 MB DIV 40 19 7 22 11 0 9 40 42 82 72 -1 31 -64 -43 -26 -28 700-850 TADV 10 11 13 5 9 10 17 25 3 18 89 -26 -28 -7 34 6 12 LAND (KM) 1528 1581 1639 1700 1589 1388 1168 886 308 104 722 1067 1128 504 483 593 665 LAT (DEG N) 27.6 28.6 29.5 30.5 31.6 33.4 35.5 38.5 44.0 51.7 59.8 64.9 63.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 54.7 55.0 55.2 55.4 55.5 55.9 55.9 55.4 54.6 54.0 50.3 38.6 23.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 11 10 10 12 21 35 40 41 34 36 38 34 26 19 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 9 CX,CY: -1/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 661 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 1. -4. -8. -13. -21. -29. -35. -41. -44. -43. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 2. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 13. 15. 17. 19. 21. 23. 24. 24. 24. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 6. 7. 8. 7. 6. 5. 2. -3. -10. -16. -20. -20. -19. -14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 27.6 54.7 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922020 INVEST 05/29/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 32.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.68 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.52 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 170.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.76 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 54.2 27.5 to 139.6 0.24 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.23 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 88.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.12 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.2% 9.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 1.3% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 1.2% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 3.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922020 INVEST 05/29/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922020 INVEST 05/29/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 33 36 37 38 37 36 35 32 27 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 30 33 34 35 34 33 32 29 24 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 30 31 30 29 28 25 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 22 21 20 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT