* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922020 05/29/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 30 32 35 34 31 28 27 24 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 30 32 35 34 31 28 25 25 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 24 24 23 22 22 22 24 27 32 37 44 49 52 53 52 50 Storm Type TROP TROP SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT EXTP EXTP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 49 45 44 32 23 19 22 20 12 24 36 51 45 38 27 19 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -2 -5 -8 -6 -2 -1 -5 0 4 5 0 4 2 4 -5 -2 SHEAR DIR 233 220 224 232 228 244 287 280 250 208 199 241 281 331 3 3 333 SST (C) 25.0 24.9 24.5 23.0 22.5 21.9 20.3 19.8 17.8 3.8 3.9 0.8 6.4 8.8 10.4 14.5 17.0 POT. INT. (KT) 105 104 101 92 89 86 80 80 78 70 71 70 70 71 73 75 77 ADJ. POT. INT. 93 92 89 82 80 77 73 73 74 N/A N/A N/A 69 70 71 72 73 200 MB T (C) -57.2 -57.4 -57.4 -57.7 -58.0 -58.1 -58.2 -58.4 -58.6 -57.6 -56.4 -56.1 -57.2 -56.8 -56.8 -58.0 -58.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 -0.7 -0.5 -0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 58 56 54 57 58 54 54 56 67 75 80 80 68 58 59 49 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 11 10 11 10 9 7 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 4 13 -2 -18 -17 -36 -47 -39 8 25 -21 -31 -85 -69 -98 -28 -2 200 MB DIV 46 50 14 10 20 4 -16 14 62 45 91 5 7 9 -60 -35 -30 700-850 TADV 22 13 14 18 7 8 13 17 2 4 46 47 -7 24 11 10 -5 LAND (KM) 1464 1506 1567 1634 1681 1479 1278 1060 680 -22 334 912 1364 868 414 753 820 LAT (DEG N) 26.8 27.7 28.6 29.6 30.6 32.6 34.5 36.8 40.6 47.0 55.0 62.3 65.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 54.8 55.1 55.2 55.4 55.6 55.7 55.7 55.2 54.3 53.3 51.8 45.5 31.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 10 10 9 11 14 26 37 42 37 32 35 38 33 25 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 9 CX,CY: 0/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 620 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 4.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 3. 5. 7. 10. 11. 11. 11. 9. 8. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 1. -5. -9. -14. -20. -29. -38. -48. -53. -53. -49. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 13. 15. 16. 18. 21. 23. 24. 23. 24. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -8. -12. -13. -14. -15. -16. -15. -15. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -7. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 7. 10. 9. 6. 3. 2. -1. -7. -15. -23. -27. -28. -21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 26.8 54.8 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922020 INVEST 05/29/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 38.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.84 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.57 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 138.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.80 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 62.2 27.5 to 139.6 0.31 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.27 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 80.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.20 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922020 INVEST 05/29/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922020 INVEST 05/29/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 29 30 32 35 34 31 28 25 25 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 25 24 26 27 29 32 31 28 25 22 22 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 24 27 26 23 20 17 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 20 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT