* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922020 05/29/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 30 32 34 35 31 24 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 28 30 32 34 35 31 24 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 24 23 22 21 19 18 18 19 22 26 34 43 49 52 52 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 63 59 49 40 40 29 30 23 15 10 22 25 21 16 18 16 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -8 -8 -8 0 -2 -2 -2 1 -4 0 3 2 0 -1 -4 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 237 238 237 228 231 243 241 257 267 221 212 210 257 320 13 40 65 SST (C) 26.1 25.1 24.6 24.3 23.6 21.8 20.3 19.4 19.7 8.3 1.8 4.2 5.6 8.6 10.4 11.7 12.6 POT. INT. (KT) 115 106 102 100 96 86 81 78 81 69 70 70 69 68 68 70 71 ADJ. POT. INT. 104 95 91 89 85 78 73 72 74 68 N/A N/A 68 67 67 68 68 200 MB T (C) -56.8 -56.9 -57.3 -57.4 -57.4 -57.8 -57.8 -57.9 -58.3 -58.6 -58.4 -58.5 -58.3 -58.6 -58.6 -58.5 -58.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 -0.6 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 62 62 61 60 60 60 58 58 57 63 67 72 65 55 48 49 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 12 11 11 11 10 8 7 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 1 2 8 0 -8 -33 -72 -103 -80 -50 -23 -87 -133 -105 -140 -129 -99 200 MB DIV 36 24 48 57 26 22 5 -9 12 36 44 77 -5 -76 -62 -37 -26 700-850 TADV 13 17 23 10 7 6 12 18 15 36 22 8 -9 42 43 40 32 LAND (KM) 1450 1552 1639 1721 1793 1636 1379 1123 823 333 205 722 1364 1203 794 949 1430 LAT (DEG N) 25.4 26.4 27.4 28.5 29.5 31.8 34.1 36.5 39.3 43.7 50.3 57.1 60.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 53.9 53.4 53.1 53.0 53.0 53.4 54.0 54.4 54.2 53.1 51.1 46.8 37.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 10 11 12 12 12 17 29 36 35 29 25 22 24 25 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 13 CX,CY: 9/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 497 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 8. 10. 12. 12. 11. 9. 8. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 4. 5. 3. -3. -13. -19. -22. -27. -30. -34. -38. -40. -40. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 8. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 3. 6. 8. 10. 11. 13. 15. 17. 20. 22. 23. 23. 24. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -6. -9. -13. -16. -17. -17. -17. -17. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -9. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 6. -1. -4. -8. -11. -13. -15. -17. -18. -20. -16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 25.4 53.9 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922020 INVEST 05/29/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 50.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.57 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.45 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 117.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.82 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.0 27.5 to 139.6 0.36 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.31 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 83.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.17 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922020 INVEST 05/29/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922020 INVEST 05/29/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 28 30 32 34 35 31 24 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 30 31 27 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 26 22 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT