* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922019 10/09/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 32 33 35 34 29 23 18 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 32 33 35 34 29 23 18 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 30 28 27 26 25 24 23 21 20 21 23 26 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 39 43 37 34 30 42 61 50 28 25 21 33 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -6 -3 -1 0 -1 -5 -4 4 2 3 1 2 SHEAR DIR 250 251 247 255 270 259 258 248 258 260 219 213 232 SST (C) 26.4 25.8 25.8 25.9 25.6 25.0 24.8 23.2 14.8 13.4 12.0 14.0 12.0 POT. INT. (KT) 119 114 114 115 112 106 103 94 69 65 65 70 69 ADJ. POT. INT. 105 101 102 102 99 91 88 83 66 62 63 67 67 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.3 -54.4 -54.8 -55.1 -55.3 -56.2 -57.2 -57.4 -57.1 -56.4 -56.7 -56.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 69 66 65 63 62 60 59 56 52 57 51 44 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 58 54 58 63 56 150 137 80 49 59 22 64 93 200 MB DIV 11 19 47 46 29 43 59 50 20 39 24 36 -4 700-850 TADV 9 -6 -4 4 2 33 41 50 24 14 -13 -51 -65 LAND (KM) 414 454 560 702 846 849 696 423 172 74 3 -58 198 LAT (DEG N) 31.9 32.7 33.3 33.9 34.5 36.0 37.7 40.0 42.1 43.5 44.7 45.3 45.0 LONG(DEG W) 73.7 72.2 70.4 68.5 66.7 63.6 62.4 63.5 66.4 68.4 67.2 63.4 57.8 STM SPEED (KT) 14 16 17 16 16 12 10 14 13 7 10 17 21 HEAT CONTENT 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 13 CX,CY: 11/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 654 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 8. 9. 10. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. -3. -16. -26. -33. -38. -43. -48. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 12. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. -1. -7. -12. -15. -18. -21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 31.9 73.7 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922019 INVEST 10/09/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 36.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.65 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.44 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.7 27.5 to 139.6 0.39 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.28 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 18.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.82 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 100.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.84 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.9% 4.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 1.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922019 INVEST 10/09/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922019 INVEST 10/09/2019 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 31 32 33 35 34 29 23 18 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 30 31 32 34 33 28 22 17 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 28 30 29 24 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 23 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT