* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922019 10/09/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 38 39 40 40 37 31 26 20 16 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 37 38 39 40 40 37 31 26 20 18 DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 35 36 37 36 35 34 32 30 28 27 26 29 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 34 37 40 40 36 42 59 60 36 23 20 24 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -4 -5 -5 -1 0 -5 -7 2 3 0 2 3 SHEAR DIR 241 248 251 254 264 276 261 251 251 266 238 205 223 SST (C) 26.3 26.2 25.7 25.6 25.9 25.3 24.7 24.2 19.5 14.2 12.4 13.6 11.8 POT. INT. (KT) 119 118 113 113 115 109 102 100 79 67 65 69 68 ADJ. POT. INT. 107 105 101 100 102 94 86 86 72 64 63 66 66 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.2 -54.4 -54.6 -54.8 -55.7 -56.1 -57.6 -57.5 -57.4 -56.3 -56.7 -56.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 73 72 69 67 65 64 60 56 52 52 51 45 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 68 48 51 51 47 108 125 93 54 41 31 42 73 200 MB DIV 38 8 31 61 55 44 28 46 42 20 27 39 15 700-850 TADV 9 7 -6 7 16 40 34 39 32 22 8 -32 -48 LAND (KM) 416 414 479 604 752 846 752 539 256 133 -17 -54 11 LAT (DEG N) 31.3 32.2 33.0 33.7 34.3 35.7 37.1 39.0 41.2 43.0 44.6 46.1 46.7 LONG(DEG W) 74.9 73.3 71.6 69.7 67.8 64.4 62.6 63.1 65.5 68.1 68.1 65.3 60.4 STM SPEED (KT) 17 16 17 17 16 14 8 13 15 10 9 15 18 HEAT CONTENT 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 18 CX,CY: 15/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 545 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -6. -19. -29. -35. -40. -43. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 2. -4. -9. -15. -19. -20. -23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 31.3 74.9 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922019 INVEST 10/09/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 37.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.61 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.45 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.1 27.5 to 139.6 0.36 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.32 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 13.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.86 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 95.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.84 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.7% 8.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 3.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922019 INVEST 10/09/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922019 INVEST 10/09/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 37 38 39 40 40 37 31 26 20 18 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 35 34 35 36 37 37 34 28 23 17 15 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 33 33 30 24 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 26 26 23 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT