* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922019 10/08/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 35 38 40 41 42 43 40 35 30 27 25 25 V (KT) LAND 30 35 38 40 41 42 43 40 35 30 27 25 26 V (KT) LGEM 30 34 36 37 37 36 35 35 33 32 30 31 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 30 27 32 35 36 31 31 53 59 40 21 16 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 -4 -5 0 -1 -3 -5 0 2 0 3 SHEAR DIR 249 243 242 252 253 262 275 262 248 238 250 260 218 SST (C) 27.6 27.0 26.3 26.3 25.8 25.9 25.2 24.6 24.8 23.3 14.0 12.2 13.9 POT. INT. (KT) 134 126 119 119 114 115 108 101 104 95 68 65 68 ADJ. POT. INT. 122 114 106 106 102 102 94 86 89 83 65 63 65 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -53.9 -53.9 -54.2 -54.4 -54.8 -55.6 -56.0 -56.8 -57.1 -57.2 -56.7 -56.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 3 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 68 70 73 71 69 64 62 61 60 54 52 56 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 12 12 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 46 67 60 55 53 65 117 144 130 96 68 50 55 200 MB DIV 77 50 20 7 19 45 60 37 74 47 25 29 35 700-850 TADV 10 10 10 14 2 11 36 22 39 38 40 11 -15 LAND (KM) 259 431 445 449 504 761 914 866 675 379 103 14 -13 LAT (DEG N) 29.0 30.0 30.9 31.7 32.5 33.7 34.9 36.1 38.0 40.4 42.6 44.4 45.9 LONG(DEG W) 78.0 76.5 75.0 73.4 71.7 67.9 64.5 62.3 62.1 63.6 65.8 66.2 63.8 STM SPEED (KT) 17 16 16 16 17 16 14 9 12 14 12 9 13 HEAT CONTENT 19 10 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 17 CX,CY: 15/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 499 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 9. 11. 13. 14. 13. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 4. 0. -10. -21. -31. -36. -39. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 11. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 10. 5. 0. -3. -5. -5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 29.0 78.0 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922019 INVEST 10/08/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 31.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.04 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.27 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.63 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.1 27.5 to 139.6 0.47 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.30 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.97 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 93.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.84 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.9% 10.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.4% 6.0% 3.2% 0.7% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.8% 5.4% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922019 INVEST 10/08/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922019 INVEST 10/08/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 35 38 40 41 42 43 40 35 30 27 25 26 18HR AGO 30 29 32 34 35 36 37 34 29 24 21 19 20 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 29 30 31 28 23 18 15 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 22 23 20 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT