* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922019 09/05/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 31 31 29 29 82 80 63 48 26 DIS V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 31 31 29 29 82 80 63 48 26 DIS V (KT) LGEM 30 30 29 28 28 26 30 50 54 40 32 27 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 29 23 20 19 20 19 16 17 20 47 59 56 56 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -1 -2 0 0 -2 -4 -1 4 3 -3 1 -3 SHEAR DIR 334 339 342 333 332 352 350 235 238 273 300 318 327 SST (C) 27.7 28.0 28.1 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.5 25.0 14.5 11.6 13.7 14.9 17.9 POT. INT. (KT) 131 135 137 135 134 134 133 112 77 74 76 76 79 ADJ. POT. INT. 106 111 112 109 109 109 115 104 74 72 73 73 75 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.7 -51.8 -51.7 -51.7 -51.5 -51.5 -51.3 -51.1 -52.3 -53.7 -54.5 -55.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 4 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 49 48 48 47 48 44 38 34 44 54 49 46 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 8 8 6 5 47 44 35 30 22 18 850 MB ENV VOR -49 -50 -42 -41 -34 -62 0 86 -23 -76 -52 -92 -107 200 MB DIV -28 -47 -36 -12 -19 -21 10 39 45 32 -6 -18 -52 700-850 TADV 13 3 7 5 5 11 21 3 2 94 176 125 7 LAND (KM) 1059 1086 1135 1177 1207 1197 1041 619 539 1340 765 4 80 LAT (DEG N) 34.9 34.9 34.8 34.7 34.7 35.1 37.0 41.2 47.6 53.3 54.9 52.3 47.2 LONG(DEG W) 60.2 59.5 58.6 57.9 57.3 56.3 55.2 51.9 45.6 35.3 21.7 9.7 4.6 STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 7 5 5 6 17 32 44 42 40 34 29 HEAT CONTENT 15 19 18 12 11 13 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 5 CX,CY: 5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 781 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 13. 14. 15. 15. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 4. 1. -3. -10. -21. -32. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. 41. 40. 29. 22. 11. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -1. 52. 50. 33. 18. -4. -21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 34.9 60.2 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922019 INVEST 09/05/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.29 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.10 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.70 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.53 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.3 27.5 to 139.6 0.46 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : -28.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.01 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 39.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.61 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 227.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.70 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 12.8% 9.6% 7.1% 6.7% 8.0% 0.0% 6.4% Logistic: 1.5% 2.5% 3.2% 0.9% 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 5.1% 4.3% 2.7% 2.3% 2.8% 0.1% 2.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.0% 5.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922019 INVEST 09/05/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922019 INVEST 09/05/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 31 31 31 29 29 82 80 63 48 26 DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 30 30 30 28 28 81 79 62 47 25 DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 26 26 24 24 77 75 58 43 21 DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 18 18 71 69 52 37 15 DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT