* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922019 09/05/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 30 30 29 28 28 79 69 52 34 DIS V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 30 30 29 28 28 79 69 52 34 DIS V (KT) LGEM 30 30 29 28 27 25 24 29 43 43 34 29 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 30 30 27 24 21 24 19 12 19 32 52 65 65 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -1 -2 1 -1 -2 -1 0 1 0 -4 -4 SHEAR DIR 328 332 341 348 338 351 8 41 195 235 273 302 320 SST (C) 27.4 27.8 28.1 28.0 28.0 27.9 28.0 27.4 18.2 17.0 12.5 13.0 15.3 POT. INT. (KT) 128 133 137 135 135 133 136 132 82 80 75 75 75 ADJ. POT. INT. 105 109 113 111 111 108 112 116 78 77 73 72 72 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.0 -51.8 -51.9 -51.9 -51.8 -51.5 -51.6 -51.5 -51.4 -53.3 -53.6 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.6 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 3 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 52 50 49 49 49 47 40 33 29 42 49 47 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 9 8 8 8 7 7 48 42 34 28 23 850 MB ENV VOR -72 -50 -55 -47 -37 -34 -55 41 46 -24 -36 -66 -34 200 MB DIV -26 -31 -46 -32 -18 -28 -18 20 39 61 36 -11 -6 700-850 TADV 9 11 3 9 7 9 7 -1 -12 0 96 188 132 LAND (KM) 1048 1056 1103 1153 1192 1220 1186 956 550 843 1282 410 67 LAT (DEG N) 34.8 35.0 34.9 34.8 34.8 35.0 35.7 38.1 42.6 49.2 54.5 55.8 53.9 LONG(DEG W) 60.8 60.0 59.1 58.2 57.4 55.9 54.8 53.1 49.2 41.5 29.7 15.5 4.4 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 6 9 20 35 45 43 38 30 HEAT CONTENT 13 15 20 15 11 13 12 15 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 7 CX,CY: 5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 794 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 5.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 14. 16. 17. 16. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 3. -1. -4. -9. -18. -30. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -6. 44. 37. 27. 19. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. 49. 39. 22. 4. -16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 34.8 60.8 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922019 INVEST 09/05/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.14 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.10 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.80 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.46 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.7 27.5 to 139.6 0.47 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -30.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 28.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.72 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 216.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.71 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 7.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 2.3% 2.7% 1.1% 0.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 0.8% 0.9% 0.4% 0.0% 2.7% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922019 INVEST 09/05/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922019 INVEST 09/05/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 30 30 30 29 28 28 79 69 52 34 DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 29 29 29 28 27 27 78 68 51 33 DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 26 26 25 24 24 75 65 48 30 DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 19 18 18 69 59 42 24 DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT