* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922019 09/05/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 32 31 30 29 27 47 74 60 44 22 V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 32 31 30 29 27 47 74 60 44 22 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 29 28 27 25 23 23 32 43 38 31 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 35 30 29 27 25 24 22 16 11 21 39 62 69 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -2 0 0 0 -1 -3 2 1 2 -4 -7 SHEAR DIR 342 329 337 342 351 348 5 18 249 194 253 279 311 SST (C) 28.1 27.9 28.0 27.8 28.0 28.2 28.1 27.7 26.3 19.3 12.5 13.1 13.4 POT. INT. (KT) 137 134 136 133 135 137 136 134 122 86 75 75 74 ADJ. POT. INT. 113 111 112 110 111 111 109 113 110 82 73 73 72 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.5 -52.1 -51.9 -52.0 -51.9 -51.6 -51.4 -51.5 -51.1 -51.9 -53.6 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.2 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 53 52 51 48 49 48 43 38 31 33 47 46 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 9 9 8 8 8 7 22 44 36 31 25 850 MB ENV VOR -72 -63 -51 -56 -50 -31 -56 -34 43 -15 -21 -20 -17 200 MB DIV -20 -20 -33 -63 -41 -3 -9 5 36 51 49 30 11 700-850 TADV 8 8 11 3 7 9 6 8 11 -32 22 152 155 LAND (KM) 1064 1062 1100 1149 1201 1253 1267 1153 815 516 1165 947 243 LAT (DEG N) 34.5 34.8 34.8 34.7 34.6 34.6 34.8 36.2 39.4 45.0 51.8 55.9 56.4 LONG(DEG W) 61.3 60.4 59.4 58.5 57.6 56.2 55.1 54.4 52.1 46.9 37.4 24.4 11.1 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 7 7 5 4 13 25 42 46 41 35 HEAT CONTENT 22 18 19 15 12 15 14 10 3 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 7 CX,CY: 5/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 759 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 5.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 14. 17. 18. 17. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 2. -3. -6. -9. -16. -26. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. 13. 42. 32. 24. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. 17. 44. 30. 14. -8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 34.5 61.3 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922019 INVEST 09/05/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.03 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.11 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.85 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.42 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.3 27.5 to 139.6 0.48 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -35.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.93 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 214.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.72 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 1.2% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 0.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922019 INVEST 09/05/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922019 INVEST 09/05/2019 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 31 32 31 30 29 27 47 74 60 44 22 18HR AGO 30 29 30 31 30 29 28 26 46 73 59 43 21 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 26 25 24 22 42 69 55 39 17 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 19 18 17 15 35 62 48 32 DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT