* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922019 09/05/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 33 33 30 27 23 19 71 64 45 26 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 33 33 30 27 23 19 71 64 45 26 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 31 31 30 27 24 22 25 37 40 33 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 32 34 31 30 28 24 25 22 11 21 28 56 69 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -2 -2 0 1 -1 -4 -4 0 0 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 330 342 337 344 348 4 359 24 57 177 231 268 299 SST (C) 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.8 28.2 28.2 27.9 27.2 18.9 15.9 12.1 13.2 POT. INT. (KT) 139 137 136 135 133 138 136 135 130 84 79 74 75 ADJ. POT. INT. 115 114 113 112 109 113 109 111 115 80 76 72 73 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.6 -52.5 -52.2 -52.0 -52.1 -51.7 -51.4 -51.4 -50.9 -50.7 -52.1 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.2 0.0 0.6 1.1 0.4 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 3 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 51 53 53 51 49 48 45 41 37 33 49 52 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 9 8 8 7 6 4 3 44 40 33 28 850 MB ENV VOR -86 -75 -61 -57 -59 -39 -49 -68 -9 17 -9 -13 -39 200 MB DIV 24 -16 -27 -30 -57 -10 -6 -22 33 46 60 26 10 700-850 TADV 13 8 9 9 3 7 7 2 -2 -23 -12 119 189 LAND (KM) 1090 1070 1083 1127 1168 1255 1281 1230 989 533 830 1246 415 LAT (DEG N) 34.1 34.5 34.7 34.7 34.7 34.5 34.6 35.3 37.8 42.6 49.7 55.4 56.5 LONG(DEG W) 61.9 61.1 60.1 59.0 58.1 56.5 55.3 54.7 53.4 49.6 41.7 29.2 14.7 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 8 7 6 4 8 20 37 49 44 40 HEAT CONTENT 22 21 19 19 13 14 15 11 14 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 8 CX,CY: 6/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 715 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 7. 11. 15. 17. 18. 18. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 2. -4. -8. -11. -16. -25. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -8. -11. 41. 37. 26. 19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 3. 3. 0. -3. -7. -11. 41. 34. 15. -4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 34.1 61.9 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922019 INVEST 09/05/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 31.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.12 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.77 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.38 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.5 27.5 to 139.6 0.49 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -21.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.04 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 207.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.72 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.3% 11.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 1.6% 1.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.6% 0.3% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 4.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 7.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922019 INVEST 09/05/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922019 INVEST 09/05/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 33 33 33 30 27 23 19 71 64 45 26 18HR AGO 30 29 31 31 31 28 25 21 17 69 62 43 24 12HR AGO 30 27 26 26 26 23 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT