* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922019 09/04/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 29 30 30 27 24 20 15 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 29 30 30 27 24 20 15 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 24 23 21 19 17 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 27 27 35 38 33 32 26 25 27 20 13 30 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -4 -3 0 0 4 1 -3 -3 -2 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 323 316 328 347 349 349 8 9 30 69 141 208 230 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.2 28.0 28.3 28.4 28.4 27.8 26.9 20.6 16.1 POT. INT. (KT) 141 141 139 137 139 135 139 139 140 134 127 89 79 ADJ. POT. INT. 118 118 116 114 115 110 113 111 112 113 112 85 76 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.0 -52.7 -52.8 -52.7 -52.0 -52.0 -51.6 -51.3 -51.6 -51.9 -52.3 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.6 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 9 5 2 0 700-500 MB RH 54 54 53 53 52 51 48 45 41 38 36 34 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 8 6 7 7 7 7 7 5 3 42 33 850 MB ENV VOR -94 -89 -89 -82 -68 -66 -53 -52 -95 -98 -70 -92 -32 200 MB DIV 0 14 23 -5 -11 -61 -11 -4 -6 21 41 25 41 700-850 TADV 12 11 14 9 7 3 9 7 0 0 -7 -15 -56 LAND (KM) 1152 1131 1100 1110 1146 1225 1308 1340 1332 1208 934 649 1165 LAT (DEG N) 33.0 33.6 34.1 34.3 34.3 34.2 34.0 34.0 34.2 35.6 38.3 42.5 47.9 LONG(DEG W) 63.3 62.5 61.5 60.5 59.5 57.9 56.5 55.4 55.0 54.5 52.6 47.4 37.2 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 8 8 6 5 3 4 11 21 37 49 HEAT CONTENT 19 20 22 20 21 12 14 19 18 10 7 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 9 CX,CY: 7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 613 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 13. 17. 21. 24. 25. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 2. -5. -12. -17. -21. -25. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -10. 41. 28. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 2. -1. -5. -10. -13. 36. 20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 33.0 63.3 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922019 INVEST 09/04/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 32.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.13 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.50 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.35 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.2 27.5 to 139.6 0.57 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.16 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 159.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.77 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.7% 7.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 0.8% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 2.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922019 INVEST 09/04/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922019 INVEST 09/04/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 29 30 30 27 24 20 15 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 25 24 26 27 28 28 25 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 23 23 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT