* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922019 09/04/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 30 31 28 25 23 19 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 30 31 28 25 23 19 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 24 22 20 18 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 25 27 26 35 38 33 31 23 27 26 17 22 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -4 -3 -1 0 3 -1 -3 -3 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 310 323 316 328 347 348 5 13 22 47 97 193 223 SST (C) 28.6 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.0 28.1 28.5 28.6 28.2 27.7 26.1 20.4 POT. INT. (KT) 145 141 139 139 137 135 136 141 141 138 134 120 88 ADJ. POT. INT. 122 119 117 116 114 111 111 114 111 113 115 108 83 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.3 -53.0 -52.7 -52.8 -52.3 -52.0 -51.8 -51.6 -51.4 -51.7 -52.4 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 9 8 4 1 700-500 MB RH 54 54 53 53 53 51 50 46 42 39 37 35 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 7 8 6 7 6 6 7 6 4 21 37 850 MB ENV VOR -99 -94 -89 -88 -81 -70 -60 -48 -77 -89 -100 -75 -90 200 MB DIV -2 0 14 22 -4 -24 -54 0 -33 8 28 29 29 700-850 TADV 10 12 10 14 9 7 10 9 7 -1 0 -16 -19 LAND (KM) 1157 1152 1133 1114 1124 1194 1277 1343 1364 1294 1145 813 732 LAT (DEG N) 32.3 33.0 33.6 34.0 34.2 34.2 34.0 33.8 33.8 34.5 36.4 39.5 43.8 LONG(DEG W) 64.0 63.3 62.4 61.4 60.4 58.6 57.2 56.0 55.3 55.2 54.1 51.3 44.7 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 8 7 6 4 2 7 14 26 36 HEAT CONTENT 23 19 20 21 20 15 11 19 21 16 11 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 9 CX,CY: 5/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 622 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 13. 18. 22. 25. 26. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 2. -5. -12. -18. -23. -25. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -9. 13. 34. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 5. 6. 3. 0. -2. -6. -12. 11. 28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 32.3 64.0 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922019 INVEST 09/04/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.14 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.48 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.31 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.5 27.5 to 139.6 0.58 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.17 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 155.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.78 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.7% 7.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 1.1% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 2.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 6.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922019 INVEST 09/04/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922019 INVEST 09/04/2019 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 30 30 31 28 25 23 19 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 28 29 26 23 21 17 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 23 24 21 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 15 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT