* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922019 09/04/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 31 32 32 30 30 27 22 62 73 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 31 32 32 30 30 27 22 62 73 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 26 25 24 22 21 19 18 26 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 24 22 21 27 26 25 24 23 29 26 18 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -1 1 1 4 4 2 -1 3 0 -4 SHEAR DIR 291 303 311 306 319 346 349 6 21 33 68 73 134 SST (C) 29.1 28.8 28.6 28.7 28.6 28.3 28.4 28.7 29.1 29.2 28.9 28.9 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 153 148 145 146 145 140 141 145 149 150 147 147 147 ADJ. POT. INT. 130 124 121 122 121 117 116 118 119 119 119 117 118 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.1 -53.3 -53.0 -52.7 -52.8 -52.1 -52.1 -51.8 -51.6 -51.8 -52.3 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 8 8 7 7 7 8 8 9 6 5 700-500 MB RH 57 55 54 53 52 55 55 52 46 40 39 42 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 7 8 8 8 7 8 8 6 37 45 850 MB ENV VOR -85 -92 -95 -97 -94 -73 -66 -51 -49 -86 -68 -11 -3 200 MB DIV 5 -7 20 19 10 -22 -62 -13 -4 -14 17 31 45 700-850 TADV 6 10 13 15 14 10 3 4 3 -5 -1 0 -2 LAND (KM) 1060 1058 1072 1068 1070 1134 1261 1388 1464 1479 1430 1380 1328 LAT (DEG N) 31.9 32.8 33.4 33.9 34.2 34.2 33.6 32.9 32.4 32.2 32.7 33.4 34.0 LONG(DEG W) 65.3 64.9 64.2 63.3 62.3 60.1 58.4 57.1 56.5 56.6 56.6 56.2 55.8 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 9 7 5 2 1 4 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 32 25 22 24 25 21 13 16 21 23 19 20 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 9 CX,CY: 2/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 694 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 19. 23. 26. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 4. -1. -7. -12. -18. -21. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. -2. -5. 35. 44. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 5. 5. 2. -3. 37. 48. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 31.9 65.3 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922019 INVEST 09/04/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.26 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.17 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.27 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.17 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.5 27.5 to 139.6 0.63 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.18 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 154.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.78 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.9% 7.5% 5.7% 4.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 1.5% 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.5% 0.7% 0.6% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.0% 3.0% 2.1% 1.7% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 7.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922019 INVEST 09/04/19 00 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922019 INVEST 09/04/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 29 31 32 32 30 30 27 22 62 73 18HR AGO 25 24 25 27 29 30 30 28 28 25 20 60 71 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 26 26 24 24 21 16 56 67 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 18 18 16 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT