* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922019 09/03/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 31 34 35 33 30 27 24 19 37 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 31 34 35 33 30 27 24 19 37 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 26 26 26 25 23 21 19 17 15 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 23 24 25 22 35 30 30 25 25 29 19 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 1 2 0 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 286 292 302 310 306 339 342 1 11 19 53 89 158 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 28.8 28.6 28.6 28.3 28.3 28.7 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.3 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 148 145 145 140 140 146 149 147 148 141 128 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 130 124 121 121 117 115 120 120 115 121 118 109 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.1 -53.2 -53.3 -53.0 -52.6 -52.3 -52.0 -51.9 -51.6 -51.1 -51.8 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.4 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 8 7 7 7 7 8 9 8 4 700-500 MB RH 61 58 55 54 52 53 54 55 49 43 40 35 33 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 5 5 6 7 8 9 8 8 8 8 6 20 850 MB ENV VOR -65 -81 -84 -89 -93 -81 -69 -51 -39 -78 -83 -73 -53 200 MB DIV 1 7 0 15 19 -7 -37 -82 -14 -32 1 21 46 700-850 TADV 5 8 11 17 17 12 8 8 7 5 -10 -3 -8 LAND (KM) 1099 1077 1098 1085 1081 1086 1174 1287 1365 1405 1343 1216 978 LAT (DEG N) 31.1 32.1 32.9 33.5 34.0 34.5 34.4 34.0 33.7 33.5 34.1 35.6 37.9 LONG(DEG W) 65.3 65.0 64.4 63.7 62.8 60.6 58.6 57.0 55.6 55.0 55.0 54.3 52.7 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 9 9 9 8 7 4 1 6 10 14 HEAT CONTENT 26 33 24 22 24 22 18 15 22 22 21 13 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 10 CX,CY: 3/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 652 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 19. 23. 26. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 4. -3. -9. -15. -21. -24. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. -6. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 10. 8. 5. 2. -1. -6. 12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 31.1 65.3 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922019 INVEST 09/03/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.27 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.17 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.29 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.14 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.7 27.5 to 139.6 0.65 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.18 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 143.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.79 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.9% 7.9% 5.9% 4.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 2.3% 1.0% 0.7% 0.2% 1.0% 1.2% 0.6% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.0% 3.4% 2.3% 1.8% 0.1% 0.3% 0.4% 0.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 6.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922019 INVEST 09/03/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922019 INVEST 09/03/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 29 31 34 35 33 30 27 24 19 37 18HR AGO 25 24 25 27 29 32 33 31 28 25 22 17 35 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 28 29 27 24 21 18 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 20 21 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT