* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922019 09/03/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 28 30 35 39 38 36 31 22 20 75 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 28 30 35 39 38 36 31 22 20 75 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 26 26 27 27 26 23 20 17 18 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 16 21 23 24 27 28 30 25 25 30 26 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 1 0 -1 -1 0 2 4 6 1 2 0 SHEAR DIR 302 286 290 301 311 323 349 358 18 26 34 31 6 SST (C) 28.9 29.2 29.1 28.8 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.5 29.3 29.4 28.8 29.0 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 150 155 153 148 145 144 142 143 155 156 147 151 152 ADJ. POT. INT. 130 133 130 125 122 120 120 119 128 129 123 129 133 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.3 -53.0 -53.1 -53.3 -52.5 -52.7 -52.2 -52.1 -52.0 -52.0 -52.3 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.5 0.1 0.4 0.1 -0.1 -0.3 0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 8 8 7 6 7 7 8 8 9 8 700-500 MB RH 58 61 57 54 53 51 54 53 52 47 44 46 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 5 5 6 9 10 10 9 6 2 2 44 850 MB ENV VOR -66 -63 -78 -87 -90 -91 -64 -50 -40 -63 -79 -57 -24 200 MB DIV 8 10 10 -5 18 5 -14 -59 -49 -15 4 16 -8 700-850 TADV 5 6 5 12 19 14 12 5 1 0 -2 0 -7 LAND (KM) 1115 1052 1051 1072 1076 1095 1201 1354 1507 1623 1596 1449 1242 LAT (DEG N) 30.1 31.2 32.1 32.9 33.5 34.1 33.8 33.1 32.1 31.0 30.1 29.1 27.7 LONG(DEG W) 65.8 65.8 65.3 64.7 63.9 61.7 59.4 57.4 56.2 56.0 56.7 57.7 59.1 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 9 9 9 10 8 6 5 6 8 10 HEAT CONTENT 19 26 33 24 22 24 18 14 24 25 21 24 36 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 10 CX,CY: 0/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 650 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 19. 24. 27. 29. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 5. -1. -6. -11. -17. -21. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. -4. -11. -11. 44. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -3. -3. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 10. 14. 13. 11. 6. -3. -5. 50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 30.1 65.8 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922019 INVEST 09/03/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.37 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.16 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.17 0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.12 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.9 27.5 to 139.6 0.67 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.18 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 145.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.79 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.9% 7.5% 5.6% 4.5% 0.0% 0.0% 3.4% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 2.0% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.8% 0.9% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.0% 3.2% 2.2% 1.6% 0.0% 0.3% 1.4% 0.2% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922019 INVEST 09/03/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922019 INVEST 09/03/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 26 28 30 35 39 38 36 31 22 20 75 18HR AGO 25 24 24 26 28 33 37 36 34 29 20 18 73 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 30 34 33 31 26 17 15 70 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 22 26 25 23 18 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT