* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922019 09/03/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 28 33 36 37 36 36 36 35 32 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 28 33 36 37 36 36 36 35 32 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 26 27 27 27 25 24 22 21 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 12 12 15 21 20 28 25 26 20 19 23 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 4 4 0 0 -1 2 2 5 3 0 0 SHEAR DIR 310 316 306 307 311 324 351 10 36 49 44 40 355 SST (C) 29.4 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.0 29.0 28.9 29.1 29.4 29.3 29.8 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 157 153 153 153 153 151 151 149 152 157 155 165 159 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 132 132 130 129 126 127 125 127 133 132 144 143 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.5 -53.2 -53.0 -53.1 -53.0 -52.8 -52.5 -52.2 -52.2 -52.4 -52.7 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.3 0.2 0.3 -0.1 0.1 -0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 9 8 8 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 57 58 59 58 53 50 50 53 50 46 45 47 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 5 3 850 MB ENV VOR -67 -75 -75 -78 -90 -89 -79 -63 -53 -77 -81 -57 -36 200 MB DIV 11 12 14 12 -3 9 -14 -36 -53 -17 -15 25 17 700-850 TADV 5 5 8 2 8 16 13 6 2 1 0 -2 -6 LAND (KM) 1073 1145 1089 1072 1099 1181 1274 1417 1524 1391 1245 1099 894 LAT (DEG N) 28.6 29.4 30.4 31.3 32.0 32.8 32.6 31.7 30.5 29.2 28.2 27.3 25.9 LONG(DEG W) 65.8 66.0 65.9 65.5 64.8 63.1 61.0 59.4 58.7 58.9 59.9 61.1 62.6 STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 10 9 9 9 9 7 7 7 6 8 11 HEAT CONTENT 26 20 21 27 29 22 19 22 29 29 39 53 33 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 517 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 20. 25. 28. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 2. -3. -7. -11. -14. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -7. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 3. 8. 11. 12. 11. 11. 11. 10. 7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 28.6 65.8 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922019 INVEST 09/03/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.58 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.16 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.42 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.31 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.3 27.5 to 139.6 0.70 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.18 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 146.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.79 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.4% 13.6% 9.8% 7.0% 0.0% 0.0% 7.1% 0.0% Logistic: 2.5% 12.3% 7.6% 4.3% 1.4% 5.4% 2.9% 3.5% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 8.7% 5.8% 3.7% 0.5% 1.8% 3.3% 1.2% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922019 INVEST 09/03/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922019 INVEST 09/03/2019 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 28 28 33 36 37 36 36 36 35 32 18HR AGO 25 24 25 26 26 31 34 35 34 34 34 33 30 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 22 27 30 31 30 30 30 29 26 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 15 20 23 24 23 23 23 22 19 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT