* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922019 09/02/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 25 25 27 30 34 34 34 32 29 30 28 V (KT) LAND 25 24 25 25 27 30 34 34 34 32 29 30 28 V (KT) LGEM 25 24 23 23 24 24 24 23 22 20 19 19 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 8 11 16 18 27 27 28 22 20 13 16 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 1 3 5 2 -4 -1 2 2 4 1 3 SHEAR DIR 310 300 286 295 287 294 317 340 342 13 35 35 46 SST (C) 29.7 29.4 29.0 29.0 29.2 28.7 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 162 158 152 152 155 146 150 150 150 148 146 147 144 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 137 132 131 132 120 124 124 124 121 116 118 116 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.5 -53.5 -53.5 -53.1 -52.9 -52.7 -52.3 -52.0 -51.8 -51.7 -51.6 -51.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.3 0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 60 60 60 61 61 53 51 51 52 50 45 42 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 5 5 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -55 -49 -67 -65 -70 -102 -107 -104 -86 -78 -95 -86 -78 200 MB DIV 7 43 19 11 23 -4 10 -25 -58 -64 -12 -11 41 700-850 TADV -5 -1 1 5 10 6 15 8 7 4 1 1 3 LAND (KM) 1001 1051 1099 1017 969 1009 1076 1154 1244 1362 1427 1410 1398 LAT (DEG N) 27.8 28.5 29.4 30.4 31.5 32.7 33.4 33.4 32.9 32.1 31.6 31.9 32.2 LONG(DEG W) 65.6 66.1 66.6 66.8 66.6 65.5 64.1 62.4 60.9 59.8 59.4 59.0 58.5 STM SPEED (KT) 6 9 10 10 9 7 7 7 7 5 1 3 2 HEAT CONTENT 32 25 19 18 29 25 27 24 20 19 23 23 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 444 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 20. 24. 27. 29. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 1. -3. -7. -10. -12. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. -8. -12. -12. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -3. -3. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. 0. 0. 2. 5. 9. 9. 9. 7. 4. 5. 3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 27.8 65.6 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922019 INVEST 09/02/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 3.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.66 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.16 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.39 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.29 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.2 27.5 to 139.6 0.73 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.23 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.95 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 122.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.81 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.6% 12.8% 9.2% 6.4% 0.0% 0.0% 6.3% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 4.8% 2.4% 0.8% 0.2% 0.8% 1.1% 0.8% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 5.9% 3.9% 2.4% 0.1% 0.3% 2.5% 0.3% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922019 INVEST 09/02/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922019 INVEST 09/02/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 24 25 25 27 30 34 34 34 32 29 30 28 18HR AGO 25 24 25 25 27 30 34 34 34 32 29 30 28 12HR AGO 25 22 21 21 23 26 30 30 30 28 25 26 24 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 20 24 24 24 22 19 20 18 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT