* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922019 09/02/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 38 40 45 48 49 47 43 37 37 53 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 38 40 45 48 49 47 43 37 37 53 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 42 42 40 36 34 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 15 15 16 17 18 22 25 35 33 32 29 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -4 -5 -6 -2 0 0 -2 2 2 2 3 SHEAR DIR 264 280 280 280 285 304 296 314 342 3 28 33 30 SST (C) 29.4 29.7 29.8 29.7 29.3 28.7 28.7 29.0 29.2 29.3 29.2 29.4 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 158 163 165 163 156 145 144 149 152 155 154 157 165 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 144 144 141 134 121 118 121 125 129 130 135 144 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.5 -54.3 -54.1 -54.1 -53.9 -53.9 -53.7 -53.3 -52.9 -52.8 -53.0 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.5 -0.5 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 57 54 53 53 53 54 49 50 52 52 51 50 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 7 6 6 6 5 4 4 4 2 4 17 850 MB ENV VOR -35 -50 -51 -52 -61 -71 -92 -91 -67 -53 -57 -63 -56 200 MB DIV -24 -32 -4 8 -1 22 -22 -1 -26 -34 -44 1 -5 700-850 TADV 2 1 2 2 6 5 3 3 0 0 0 -1 -6 LAND (KM) 1043 1092 1128 1161 1218 1372 1438 1423 1485 1442 1342 1188 1028 LAT (DEG N) 26.0 26.8 27.5 28.1 28.8 30.3 31.0 31.3 30.9 30.0 28.9 27.6 26.4 LONG(DEG W) 59.9 60.3 60.9 61.5 61.9 62.0 61.3 60.6 59.9 59.4 59.3 59.9 60.8 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 8 8 6 4 3 4 5 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 47 55 56 48 32 21 20 22 29 29 30 48 52 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 10 CX,CY: -1/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 473 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 18. 22. 25. 27. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 2. -4. -9. -15. -19. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -9. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 10. 15. 18. 19. 17. 13. 7. 7. 24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 26.0 59.9 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922019 INVEST 09/02/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.55 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 47.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.31 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.54 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.49 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.5 27.5 to 139.6 0.74 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -10.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.09 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 183.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.75 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.1% 19.8% 13.7% 9.6% 9.2% 10.0% 11.3% 11.9% Logistic: 5.9% 15.2% 13.0% 4.6% 1.0% 4.6% 3.1% 1.5% Bayesian: 0.9% 1.3% 1.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.6% 12.1% 9.4% 4.8% 3.4% 4.9% 4.8% 4.5% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922019 INVEST 09/02/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922019 INVEST 09/02/2019 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 36 38 40 45 48 49 47 43 37 37 53 18HR AGO 30 29 32 34 36 41 44 45 43 39 33 33 49 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 30 35 38 39 37 33 27 27 43 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 27 30 31 29 25 19 19 35 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT