* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922019 07/10/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 28 31 40 48 55 58 60 52 54 50 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 28 31 40 48 55 58 42 32 28 27 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 21 22 24 26 29 30 31 28 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 13 15 14 20 22 23 19 30 25 36 19 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 1 0 -3 1 0 6 1 4 0 2 1 SHEAR DIR 347 353 15 26 3 14 1 341 332 310 309 274 304 SST (C) 30.0 30.2 30.3 30.3 30.2 30.5 31.2 31.7 31.2 30.2 29.7 29.5 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 168 170 170 169 169 169 169 169 169 169 162 158 158 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 148 148 145 143 150 163 169 160 143 135 130 128 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.0 -53.0 -52.7 -52.8 -52.8 -52.4 -52.1 -51.7 -51.5 -52.1 -52.0 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.1 1.6 1.7 1.1 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 10 8 10 8 10 8 10 7 8 4 700-500 MB RH 56 59 60 61 59 64 58 58 53 55 51 55 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 10 11 11 16 18 21 22 25 21 22 18 850 MB ENV VOR -24 -9 6 14 4 5 2 18 -26 -9 -62 -25 -94 200 MB DIV 9 8 50 53 16 23 21 11 12 23 6 28 5 700-850 TADV -1 0 -1 2 0 -3 0 -8 9 0 11 17 0 LAND (KM) 24 106 190 223 200 116 83 29 31 -35 -178 -318 -431 LAT (DEG N) 29.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 85.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 6 4 4 5 5 4 4 6 7 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 27 30 44 48 46 42 40 38 38 7 4 4 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):235/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 520 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -1. 1. 8. 17. 23. 29. 32. 36. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 7. 3. -2. -7. -14. -17. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 6. 9. 14. 15. 18. 14. 14. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 11. 20. 28. 35. 38. 40. 32. 34. 30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 29.5 85.5 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922019 INVEST 07/10/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.55 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 39.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.26 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.53 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.9 27.5 to 139.6 0.87 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.26 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 80.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.86 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.2% 17.1% 9.3% 6.7% 2.9% 9.9% 12.3% 15.9% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 5.8% 3.1% 2.2% 1.0% 3.3% 4.1% 5.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.0% 39.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922019 INVEST 07/10/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922019 INVEST 07/10/2019 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 22 24 28 31 40 48 55 58 42 32 28 27 18HR AGO 20 19 21 25 28 37 45 52 55 39 29 25 24 12HR AGO 20 17 16 20 23 32 40 47 50 34 24 20 19 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT